Thursday, September 6, 2007

Playoff Teams

I need to get these picks out before the season gets underway in the next few hours. This way, there will be no disputing my predictions.

NFC

East - Dallas Cowboys

West - Seattle Seahawks

North - Chicago Bears

South - Carolina Panthers

Wild Cards - Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints.

Championship - Carolina over New Orleans.

AFC

East - New England Patriots

West - San Diego Chargers

North - Cincinnati Bengals

South - Indianapolis Colts

Wild Cards - Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Championship - New England over Cincinnati.

Seen it before, we'll see it again. The Patriots over the Panthers.

Wednesday, September 5, 2007

what time is - IT'S GAME TIME - what time is it - IT'S GAME TIME.... and we're going to the house......(Wk. 1 Edition)


The best time of the year is officially upon us. (*Picks in red against the spread)

Without further delay:

NO @ Indy (-6)
Remember the last time Peyton played in a big game on national television???? P-Money will be spot on going for 350 yards against Fred Thomas and the worst secondary this side of the Detroit river.
Start: Anyone that plays offense on either team / Sit: De De Dorsey - b/c he isn't on the team anymore and either DST.

KC (+3) @ Hou
Larry carried the ball too much. KC doesn't have a passing game. Their defense is soft. Whatever!!!!! Watch Ty Law shut down Andre Johnson and Larry run wild on an improving yet still terrible Houston D. Welcome to the NFL Jacoby Jones (he takes a kick to the house) but too little, too late.
Start: Larry / Sit: Hou DST, Andre Johnson

Denver @ Buffalo (+3)
Denver is not acclimated to the low altitude and brutal humidty of northwestern New York. JP Losman and the exciting rookie RB M. Lynch shock Champ, Dre and all the other defenders with weird names from Denver. Lee Evans takes Chump Bailey to the house.
Start: M. Lynch, T. Henry, Lee Evans / Sit: Cutler, Javon Walker

Pittsburgh (-5) @ Cleveland
The dog pound will be in midseason form but it will not be enough. Ben starts his march to reclaiming the title of decent fantasy QB with a strong outing because he owns the Browns. Quinn will play - yep, it will be that bad.
Start: Big Ben, Willie Parker, Braylon Edwards Sit: J. Lewis, whoever plays QB for Cleveland

Tennesse @ Jacksonville (-6.5)
J-ville D locks Vince down and the Jag RBs run wild.
Start: Fred Taylor and MJD Sit: Vince and Gerrard

Carolina @ St. Louis (-1)
This one will be tight but the Bulger led offense will win out in the end. Watch for Holt to be ineffective with his knee injury and tight Panther CB coverage.
Start: S. Smith, Bulger / Sit: Holt, S. Jackson

Philly @ Green Bay (+3)
The GB pass rush will get after Donovan and he isn't going to scramble much with his shiny new knee ligament. Philly D will show some cracks vs. the run.
Start: Brandon Jackson, Westbrook / Sit: McNabb, Eagles DST

Atlanta @ Minny (-3)
Joey Harrington is not going to win a game in the Metrodome. REPEAT after me. Joey Harrington is not going to win a game in the Metrodome. Also, the Viking's run D is tough.
Start: A. Peterson, Chester Taylor / Sit: Everyone in an Atlanta uniform

Miami @ Wahington (-3)
Low scoring snooze-fest but Portis gets things going in front of the home crowd.
Start: Portis, Cooley / Sit: Trent Green, Chris Chambers

New England (-6.5) @ NYJ
Maroney's coming out party as a feature NFL back turns into a blood bath as Pennington gets picked multiple times. Who needs your starting saftey and defensive end when you have Belichik.
Start: Maroney, Brady / Sit:Pennington, Jets DST

Tampa @ Seattle (-6)
Tampa Bay will be the Washington Generals to the Seahawk's Globetrotters. Alexander gets off for 2 TDs a Galloway scores a pair while Garcia and the Buc's O plays catch-up.
Start: Alexander, Galloway, Branch / Sit: Buc's DST

Chicago @ San Diego (-6)
Rex on the road against a sound D. Hmmmmm........I think I smell a blood bath. The home team will cover with ease. Gates will cave up the deep middle in the Bear's cover 2. Sproles takes one to the house. You don't like the LT commercial Bear's D?? Maybe you need to learn to play O so you can do something about it.
Start: Charger's DST, Gates / Sit: All Bear's offensive players

Detroit (+2) @ Oakland
Everyone and their brother will tell you that Oakland has a great pass D and Detroit is all about passing. Big problem with that is not many team's passed the ball last year when they were up by 30 in the second half vs. a putrid Raiders team. Also, consider the fact that none of those teams had Mike Martz as a coach and Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson as WRs. The Raider's will throw to catch-up but fall short.
Start: Kitna, Roy Williams / Sit: Raider's DST

Giants @ Dallas (-6)
Romo to TO - again and again. TO start's his candidacy for league MVP and the Giant's secondary starts their candidacy for worst defensive backfield in the league. Bad combination if you root for the G-Men.
Start: Romo, TO, Barber, Dallas DST / Sit: Eli Manning, Giant's DST

Baltimore @ Cincy (-3)
Watch the injury report carefully on this one. Housh missed practice with a knee injury on Wednesday. If the problem persists be ready for this to shift to advantage Baltimore since they will be able to double Chad Johnson all over the field with little attention paid to whoever Cincy sticks opposite him. With Housh active I love Cincy. Either way this will be a hard faught low scoring game.
Start: Todd Heap, Willis Mcgahee, Housh (if active), Matt Stover / Sit: Rudi Johnson

Arizona @ San Fran (-3)
This might be a shootout like the Colts/Saints game. Both DST units will be hard pressed to slow the other side down. That is business as usual in Zona but SF is going to need a few weeks for their new D players to gel as a unit. The "veteran" QB at home wins out in the end.
Start: Gore, Fitz, Bolden, D-Jack / Sit: Both DSTs

Sneaky Play of the week: Ronald Curry OAK WR vs. Detroit - The Lion's secondary is plain awful (How's that for a homer!!!)

Busted stud of the week: Donovan McNabb @ GB - confidence in the repaired joint will take a few weeks. His accuracy, mobility and pocket presence will suffer in the meantime.

Tuesday, September 4, 2007

It is Week 1, fellas.


It's a simple enough statement, but no five words have ever felt so good to say, have they? Except for maybe 'Froth your own milk, dickhead', which I told my last boss in Hollywood the day I quit. I spent just about everyday of that job wanting to toss that steaming hot coffee all over his face, and then just watch his skin melt off his skull. I don't know how badly it would damage his face, but I imagine he would have been left looking a lot like this. Seriously, what guy asks for froth? Everyone knows it leaves you farty and bloated. Now back to Week One.
It's finally here. It's been too long. I could add all the excitement I get from Spring Training, March Madness, the NBA Playoffs, all the PGA Majors, the ATP Grand Slams, the Indy 500, the Kentucky Derby & The Triple Crown and Nathan's Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest and it would only be about 5% of the excitement I get for Week One of the NFL Season. I put the over/under for hours I sleep on Saturday night at 3.5. If your bookie will take this bet, TAKE THE UNDER! For a grown man--er, strike that, for a young dude who wants nothing more than to crush one more beer can over his head before he has to grow up--this is better than x-mas morning.
So if you're like me, you're spending this week going over the betting lines. Let's start with Thursday game, New Orleans +6 at Indianapolis, over/under @52. I'm a sucker for that over. The number is too high. It scares me. It's a bet, for all intents and purposes, that I should not touch. This could be a great game at 24-21 and I'd be begging for Manning to throw a bomb when he's taking a knee. But the odds makers know I've been drooling for this game since the schedule was released. They know how badly I want Manning and Brees to throw for 4 touchdowns each, and for Bush and Addai to add another two. They are playing to my weaknesses. 52 points is nothing when I'm dreaming that it's 47-42 at the 2 minute warning. Be warned, it's a stupid bet, but I like the over, and I'll take the Saints +6.

Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON. Um, this is a game I would never, ever tune into if Larry Johnson wasn't my #1 fantasy back. These teams are the epitome of mediocrity. I just like the Chiefs D a little bit more.

Denver (-3) over BUFFALO. Travis Henry may fumble his career away, but it won't be this weekend. Now that word is out that he's fathering bastard kids at the same rate as Big Baby Jesus, I think he'll be running for the kiddies. Plus, he's playing against a team that dropped him after putting up 3,849 yards in 4 years, having only started 16 games in a season once. And I don't expect Lee Evans to torch Champ Bailey like he's done to some other cornerbacks recently.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CLEVELAND. This is the 3rd road team I'm taking against the spread. Surely I'm screwing these picks up, but I just don't believe Charlie Frye will have his way with the Blitzburgh D, nor do I think the Cleveland D can shut down the likes of Big Ben, Fast Willie, and Hines Catchup.

JAGUARS (-6.5) over Tennessee. Finally, I take a home team. Yes, Vince Young might 'just win football games,' but he ain't doing it on the road against a team with a solid defense that can control the clock with their run game.

Carolina (+1) over ST.LOUIS. Torry Holt says his knee is 70%. A week later, Scott Linehan says he thinks he looks 100%. Something's happening with this injury, and I don't believe Isaac Bruce, who is quickly approaching Master Yoda in age, can pick up the slack, nor can Drew Bennett. Steven Jackson will be productive, but I like Carolina's defense to be strong with Dan Morgan back at middle linebacker.

Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY. Rookie running back, washed up quarterback, mediocre (but improving) defense...Philly easily takes this one on the road.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Atlanta. New coach, new offense, new quarterback...none of these bode well for a team on the road in game one. Plus, Vikings' fans should have a field day with inappropriate Michael Vick jokes.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami. Ew. Gross. Another game that I would never tune into if it didn't have fantasy implication for me (Ronnie Brown).

New England (-6.5) over NEW YORK JETS. The Patriots are led by Tom "It Ain't My Baby" Brady. That guy knows how to score.

Tampa Bay (+6) over SEATTLE. Seattle missed their Super Bowl chance. Not even tops in their division anymore. Shaun Alexander ain't getting any younger (or healthier), and Matt Hasselbeck ain't getting any of his hair back. The Bucs cover on the road with Jeff Garcia at the helm. (who convinced me that Jeff Garcia could Rich Gannon this team back into the playoffs? do I really believe this? I'm so confused as to why I'm picking them right now, but I'm sticking with it)

SAN DIEGO (-6) vs. Chicago. Just don't bet this game. Hell if I know.

Detroit (+2) over OAKLAND. Oakland should NOT be giving points to anyone after last season, not even Detroit.

DALLAS (-6) over NY GIANTS. I see the Giants being the worst team in football. Tiki and Strahan have already thrown the team, the coaches and the management for a loop. Eli will be crushed by Demarcus Ware. Crushed. And didn't everyone see Jeremy Shockey pointing a finger in Coughlin's face last year, disputing a call? No one respects this guy. No one. The Giants and the Falcons are going after it for the WTITL (worst team in the league) Title.

CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Baltimore. Cincinnati is going to the AFC Championship, and it all starts here. Carson, Chad and Housh will be ready for primetime--they don't get these games often.

Arizona (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO. Who the hell is going to win the NFC West? Weak defenses, strong offenses throughout. John Clayton would know. I do not. But I do know I'll take the points in this one.