It is Week 1, fellas.

It's a simple enough statement, but no five words have ever felt so good to say, have they? Except for maybe 'Froth your own milk, dickhead', which I told my last boss in Hollywood the day I quit. I spent just about everyday of that job wanting to toss that steaming hot coffee all over his face, and then just watch his skin melt off his skull. I don't know how badly it would damage his face, but I imagine he would have been left looking a lot like this. Seriously, what guy asks for froth? Everyone knows it leaves you farty and bloated. Now back to Week One.
It's finally here. It's been too long. I could add all the excitement I get from Spring Training, March Madness, the NBA Playoffs, all the PGA Majors, the ATP Grand Slams, the Indy 500, the Kentucky Derby & The Triple Crown and Nathan's Famous Fourth of July Hot Dog Eating Contest and it would only be about 5% of the excitement I get for Week One of the NFL Season. I put the over/under for hours I sleep on Saturday night at 3.5. If your bookie will take this bet, TAKE THE UNDER! For a grown man--er, strike that, for a young dude who wants nothing more than to crush one more beer can over his head before he has to grow up--this is better than x-mas morning.
So if you're like me, you're spending this week going over the betting lines. Let's start with Thursday game, New Orleans +6 at Indianapolis, over/under @52. I'm a sucker for that over. The number is too high. It scares me. It's a bet, for all intents and purposes, that I should not touch. This could be a great game at 24-21 and I'd be begging for Manning to throw a bomb when he's taking a knee. But the odds makers know I've been drooling for this game since the schedule was released. They know how badly I want Manning and Brees to throw for 4 touchdowns each, and for Bush and Addai to add another two. They are playing to my weaknesses. 52 points is nothing when I'm dreaming that it's 47-42 at the 2 minute warning. Be warned, it's a stupid bet, but I like the over, and I'll take the Saints +6.

Kansas City (+3) over HOUSTON. Um, this is a game I would never, ever tune into if Larry Johnson wasn't my #1 fantasy back. These teams are the epitome of mediocrity. I just like the Chiefs D a little bit more.

Denver (-3) over BUFFALO. Travis Henry may fumble his career away, but it won't be this weekend. Now that word is out that he's fathering bastard kids at the same rate as Big Baby Jesus, I think he'll be running for the kiddies. Plus, he's playing against a team that dropped him after putting up 3,849 yards in 4 years, having only started 16 games in a season once. And I don't expect Lee Evans to torch Champ Bailey like he's done to some other cornerbacks recently.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) over CLEVELAND. This is the 3rd road team I'm taking against the spread. Surely I'm screwing these picks up, but I just don't believe Charlie Frye will have his way with the Blitzburgh D, nor do I think the Cleveland D can shut down the likes of Big Ben, Fast Willie, and Hines Catchup.

JAGUARS (-6.5) over Tennessee. Finally, I take a home team. Yes, Vince Young might 'just win football games,' but he ain't doing it on the road against a team with a solid defense that can control the clock with their run game.

Carolina (+1) over ST.LOUIS. Torry Holt says his knee is 70%. A week later, Scott Linehan says he thinks he looks 100%. Something's happening with this injury, and I don't believe Isaac Bruce, who is quickly approaching Master Yoda in age, can pick up the slack, nor can Drew Bennett. Steven Jackson will be productive, but I like Carolina's defense to be strong with Dan Morgan back at middle linebacker.

Philadelphia (-3) over GREEN BAY. Rookie running back, washed up quarterback, mediocre (but improving) defense...Philly easily takes this one on the road.

MINNESOTA (-3) over Atlanta. New coach, new offense, new quarterback...none of these bode well for a team on the road in game one. Plus, Vikings' fans should have a field day with inappropriate Michael Vick jokes.

WASHINGTON (-3) over Miami. Ew. Gross. Another game that I would never tune into if it didn't have fantasy implication for me (Ronnie Brown).

New England (-6.5) over NEW YORK JETS. The Patriots are led by Tom "It Ain't My Baby" Brady. That guy knows how to score.

Tampa Bay (+6) over SEATTLE. Seattle missed their Super Bowl chance. Not even tops in their division anymore. Shaun Alexander ain't getting any younger (or healthier), and Matt Hasselbeck ain't getting any of his hair back. The Bucs cover on the road with Jeff Garcia at the helm. (who convinced me that Jeff Garcia could Rich Gannon this team back into the playoffs? do I really believe this? I'm so confused as to why I'm picking them right now, but I'm sticking with it)

SAN DIEGO (-6) vs. Chicago. Just don't bet this game. Hell if I know.

Detroit (+2) over OAKLAND. Oakland should NOT be giving points to anyone after last season, not even Detroit.

DALLAS (-6) over NY GIANTS. I see the Giants being the worst team in football. Tiki and Strahan have already thrown the team, the coaches and the management for a loop. Eli will be crushed by Demarcus Ware. Crushed. And didn't everyone see Jeremy Shockey pointing a finger in Coughlin's face last year, disputing a call? No one respects this guy. No one. The Giants and the Falcons are going after it for the WTITL (worst team in the league) Title.

CINCINNATI (-2.5) over Baltimore. Cincinnati is going to the AFC Championship, and it all starts here. Carson, Chad and Housh will be ready for primetime--they don't get these games often.

Arizona (+3) over SAN FRANCISCO. Who the hell is going to win the NFC West? Weak defenses, strong offenses throughout. John Clayton would know. I do not. But I do know I'll take the points in this one.

Futures

I monitor most major fantasy football news outlets and my hometown team's injured RB Kevin Jones has been in the news a fair share. The word came down today that he was officially removed from the PUP list. That means he has been medically cleared to practice and will be eligible to play (as early as week 1) whenever KJ and the coaches give the thumbs up.

I am one of the few people in the known universe to actually watch all of the Lion's preseason games and can comfortably say there is one reason and one reason alone the Lion's coaching staff (read Mike Martz) pushed for KJ to go off PUP. They are horrified at the prospect of relying on Tatum (two hand touch and I'm down) Bell and TJ (I'm a fullback) Duckett.

I expect KJ to be back in the stating lineup no later than week 5 against division rival Chicago at home. I've heard people talking about dropping KJ in some leagues and others giving up on the Lion's run game because it could become the latest example of the dreaded RBBC (Running Back By Committee). Snap him up if he is on waivers. While the Lions will never run the ball with power, a healthy KJ will get ALL of the goal line looks and he has already demonstrated he can catch the ball in the Martz offense.

KJ will be a major player during the second half of this season - mark it down.

Star Power

So what you're telling me is that Terrell Owens and Tony Romo are like Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie? Am I following you correctly? Are TO and Romo gonna start adopting little runts and taking them to the zoo? Like Pitt vowed, are TO and Romo out to adopt enough kids for a soccer team? Once I got past your analogy, and got down to the football talk, I guess I could see what you meant. But you're wrong. So, so wrong.

First off, we've got a QB who is heading into his first year as THE starter, THE man. And for "America's Team," no less. Lots of pressure, especially coming off that botched hold. This was a gaff of such epic proportions that a sexual position has actually been named after it. Basically, you have your lady run and jump into your arms, only you let her slip and fall to the ground, all before you writhe around like a fish out of water, and then proceed to screw an entire city. Now, to combat this pressure, Romo spends the offseason golfing in Tahoe, and running around with the likes of Carrie Underwood and Jessica Simpson. I, myself, am not a QB in my first full season at the helm, and I could be wrong, but wouldn't that time be better spent, I don't know, learning the new offense? Jason Garrett, Troy Aikman's backup in the Super Bowl years, is taking over as offensive coordinator. Seems like a normal move: bring in a young guy who has spent time with the organization and see if he can keep the ball rolling with an already talented offense. The thing that bothers me about Garrett, though, is his experience. He's never been a coordinator, and he's only been coaching for 2 years, as a quarterbacks' coach in Miami. Think about Miami's quarterbacks over the past two years. Is there a team with a more widely publicized quarterback problem in that span than the Miami Dolphins? Yeah, I didn't think so. Good luck, Romo. You're on your own.
TO will be TO. And that's what worries me with him. He caused just a few, minor problems in his second year in Philadelphia. He's either going to put up another 12 tuddies this year, or he's going to explode the first time he doesn't get the ball when he feels he should, and the season will be over for the Cowboys. You never know if you're getting "get your popcorn ready" or "I LOVE ME SOME ME", a phrase, which I must admit, is hilarious and gets me fired up every time I see the clip of him screaming it.
You've put a lot of eggs into this one basket. You're playing your high risk/high reward card, and I think you're really going to come up busted.

A-LISTERS

Hollywood and Fantasy Football have a lot in common. Everyone wants to plunk down their $11.50 to watch Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie get after the bad guys and each other. No one is going to see MR. and MRS. SMITH if Roseanne Barr and John Lovitz's names are on the marquee.


You need star power to drive the box office and to rack up TDs, 300 yard games and W's. My pick for most dynamic fantasy football duo this year hails from the Lonestar state. Tony Romo and Terrell Owens promise to pick right up where they left off last year electrifying crowds and terrorizing opposing defensive secondaries. T.O. (as his friend call him) has averaged 11.3 TD receptions per year over the last 9 years. At 33 years old he may no longer get carded at the liquor store but he still has some gas in the tank as evidenced by a recent 35 yard catch and run score in a preseaon game vs. Houston. If you like stats, T.O. has been the league's most productive receiver over the last 3 years with 85 yards a game and 33 TDs in 37 games. Also consider that T.O. played signifigant time with broken fingers which were repaired with off season surgery. Who knows how many of his end zone drops would of been converted into fantasy gold with two healthy mits.

Romo comes into this, his first full year at the helm. With a diverse offense, ample weapons, mobility and a strong arm, Romo will surprise with a top 5 QB year statistically. Wade Phillips will mold the Boy's D into something approaching the D his old team SD fielded last year and that can only help to get the ball back for Tony and T.O. quicker.

As an aside, owning both of these guys will allow you several chances to enjoy the coveted "Double Whammy" which as everyone knows is when your QB throws your WR a TD. Nothing feels better for an owner or worse for an opponent then when the scoreboard is buzzing with fantasy goodness. Try it, you will not be sorry.

Critics will say T.O. is one meltdown away from becoming a bust and Romo slowed considerably in the later half of last year once defenses figured him out. Just like Hollywood, we love our A-Listers warts and all. From Brad Pitt's viewpoint, for every MR. and MRS. SMITH, there is bound to be a MEET JOE BLACK. Don't worry about the bumps, sit back and enjoy what promises to be a beautiful season for our two stars.

My Brady Quinn Retort - a picture essay

If a picture is worth a thousand words.........

Start him or Sit him?

There are two quarterback situations in the NFL that I can't understand for the life of me. The first is in Chicago, with the ever sexy Rexy Grossman. The other is in Cleveland, with the recently signed Brady Quinn. I find the situations intriguing for opposing reasons: in Chicago, I can't understand why Lovie Smith is so committed to Rex, and in Cleveland, I can't believe that Romeo Crennel won't commit to Brady Quinn.
Let's start in Chicago, with the defending NFC Champion Bears. They have everything it takes to not only get to the Super Bowl, but to win it. Everything but a QB who doesn't turnover the ball. How many times did Lovie take the podium on Mondays last year, justifying his decision to stay with Rex? No, seriously. How many? I'm wondering, and I'd love to know. If anyone from the Chicago area is reading this and can contribute, I'd greatly appreciate it. I'm going to guess about every week. After all, Rex did throw 20 interceptions and lost an additional 5 possessions on 8 fumbles. That's not Super Bowl caliber. Not even close. Make the change already, Lovie. This kid came into the league and sat with injuries for three years. That alone would have pushed me to replace him. He was a bad draft pick. Plain and simple. No biggie, happens all the time, especially with highly touted QB's who can't make the transition from college to the pros. You find a stable free agent to replace him (Brian Griese will do) and make the change already. You're telling me Urlacher and the rest of that defense doesn't want Rex's head on a platter? They can barely get a cup of gatorade and some oxygen before he turns the pill back over. If the Ravens can win the Super Bowl with a nasty defense and a run game, then so can the Bears. If the Buccaneers can win the Super Bowl with a nasty defense, and a really really weak West Coast offense, then so can the Bears. Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson. Arguably the two worst QB's to ever hoist the Lombardi trophy, but they were able to do so simply by protecting the ball.
Perhaps the Bears' front office has too much ego to admit Rex was a bad pick. I don't know how much money they guaranteed him, or exactly what their infatuation is, but whatever it may be, I hope it comes to end soon, so the team, and the loyal fans of Chicago, get what it deserves: an NFL-caliber quarterback.
The second situation that continues to perplex me is that of Brady Quinn. Normally, I would say it's an absolute imperative that rookie QB's hold the clip board for a year. A must. But here, in this situation, I think you throw the kid right into the fire. I'm all for bringing a rookie along slowly, like Cincinnati did with Carson Palmer. Carson came in the heir apparent, the Heisman winner, but still he sat behind Jon Kitna for year to learn the ropes, the reads, the subtleties of the offense, and of the league. And look at him now. We're talking best of the best, right up there with Peyton. The difference between Carson's situation and Brady Quinn's situation is the presence of a veteran QB. Makes all the difference. Palmer had someone to learn from, whereas Quinn is currently behind Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson. These are two terrible quarterbacks. They are two, third year guys with half the talent and zero the potential of Quinn. They are the epitome of journeymen. In 5 years time, I bet they both will have been rostered by 4 other teams. Quinn is coming into the league with the mental and physical abilities to be successful at the next level. Granted, Rex Grossman was also once this guy, but I think Quinn's two years of training under Charlie Weiss will make all the difference. Weiss was breeding a NFL guy; a QB who can look off a safety, check down to the right receiver, or audible into the best option at the line. Trust your boy, Romeo. Charlie wouldn't do you wrong like that. Make the call. Brady is your man.

"The Reverse"

On a recent trip home I accepted an invitation to co-manage a team in a 12 team redraft league. I decided to do this because and not in spite of the fact this team is picking 12th overall. I plan to employ the maverick draft stratefy to be formally referred to as "The Reverse". Instead of going RB, RB right off the bat, I plan to convince my co-manager that we need to go WR, WR or QB, WR if Peyton Manning is still around at pick 1.12 . You can spend all day comparing average production from 1st and 2nd rd RBs - that ends up being largely pointless and VERY boring. I predict this plan will land me the 1st and 2nd overall WRs on my board - Chad Johnson and TO. I antipate following up 22 picks later in the bottom of the 3rd/ top of the 4th with the two best starting RBs left. I anticipate them to be someone like M. Lynch and A. Green. My theory is that the two WR studs will outproduce or at least be more of a "sure thing" than 2 speculative RB picks at the end of the first round that might have experience or injury question marks hanging over their heads. I'm hoping this novel approach will shake some managers off their script and encourage them to pull the trigger early on a top WR when they otherwise wouldn't have. If that happens, my RB choices in the 3rd and 4th might be a few notches stronger. In any event it should be fun and I will post the draft after we have it this Thursday.

This article inspired my quest to prove you don't need stud RBs to win it all.

Also, a special shout-out is in order for X-body. His longtime keeper league Ashley's New Teeth was featured in a newspaper expose on fatasy football in the East Valley Tribune, a Phoenix area newspaper. Please take a look.