The SportsGuy Does It Again

Regarding the Patriots and Cowboys, Bill Simmons summed it up perfectly:

Patriots (-5.5) over COWBOYS
For three reasons ...

1. The Pats are 5-0 against the league, 5-0 against the spread. Isn't Rule No. 1 of gambling to keep riding the hot team until it loses?

2. Tony Romo has started 16 games in the NFL. He looked great in five of them, good in three of them, mediocre in four of them, lousy in three of them and abysmal in two of them. Should I trust Romo in a gigantic game ... or should I trust Tom Brady, who has a 127.2 QB rating and three Super Bowl rings? You tell me.

3. When Dallas finally won Monday night's game, they showed Wade Phillips jumping around and the Sports Gal (reading a magazine) looked up, started giggling and asked, "Who's that guy?" When I responded that it was Dallas' coach, she laughed again and said, "That's their coach??? Really? It looks like he should be sitting at a sports bar stuffing his face with chicken wings." I'm supposed to take him against Belichick? Come on.

Week 6 Picks

Last week I was 7-7 in my Yahoo! Pick 'em League. Sorry for not sharing, but when you factor in 'juice', you would have been a loser anyways.

I am back, though, this week, and ready to rebound with some solid picks.

Like we always do about this time...

Tennessee +3 over TAMPA BAY. Normally, I'd take Tampa at home, but with their depleted backfield, I just can't justify it. The Titans' coach Jeff Fisher remains grossly underrated, and...AND...Vince Young just wins football games. I heard Fisher on ESPN 710 radio this morning in an interview with Colin Cowherd saying just that.

Minnesota +5 over CHICAGO. Minnesota will completely shut down Cedric Benson, and the Bears will limit Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. It'll be close, but I expect the Bears to do a little more in the passing game. Also, I just picked up Greg Olsen in my keeper league as a potential rookie keeper. I think he could be worth it since I couldn't get to Peterson or Marshawn Lynch.

JACKSONVILLE -6.5 over Houston. The Jags should dominate at home. They are great against the run, and Houston is still hurting without Andre Johnson to stretch the field. I expect Fred Taylor and MoJo to get back to their old ways of pounding the ball for 150+ yards.

CLEVELAND -4.5 over Miami. Cleveland is a surprise this year, and I like them to put up some points on the aging Miami defense. Ronnie Brown should have another great outing, as should Braylon Edwards, who is emerging as the best '3rd year' wideout in the league. Last week, I traded him to Davecat for Ben Watson and Ben Roethlisberger, who combined for three touchdowns in my victory over him. It just never gets old mentioning that.

BALTIMORE -9.5 over St. Louis. I don't think the Rams are going to get their first win on the road in Baltimore, and I can only hope that the Ravens 9 points last week against the 9ers will refocus Billick to get something going. I like "Thrill us" Willis McGahee to get it together and find some paydirt for once.

GREEN BAY -3 over Washington. Hey, 'Skins? Green Bay is going to throw the ball a lot on you. Like, 45 times a lot. Occasionally, once they've thrown it at least 10 times, they'll run a draw, but only after Favre fakes a quick hitch pass. No one else has been able to stop it, and you want be able to stop it in Lambeau either.

KANSAS CITY +3 over Cincinnati. I hate this game. But home dogs have been dominant this year and KC can keep that trend alive in Arrowhead. Larry Johnson should (finally) have his day, as everyone seems to light up the Bengals on the ground. Carson and Co. should also do just fine, so if you're really feeling lucky, take the over at 42.

Philadelphia -3 over NY JETS. Andy Reid is 8-0 after the bye week. That's good enough for me.

ARIZONA -4 over Carolina. The Carolina Panthers are opting not to start their rookie quarterback, Matt Moore, electing to sign and start 43 year old Vinny Testerverde instead. Vinny Testicles will blow this game. That's a guarantee.

SAN DIEGO -9.5 over Oakland. The Chargers finally resembled the Chargers last week, on the road, against Denver. The week before, they sucked it up at home against Chiefs. This is their 3rd divisional game in a row, and they need it. They're confident off their victory, and will handily take it to Raider Nation. (you like how I speculate on their confidence level, after a victory? Reality is they whole team probably hates AJ Smith for canning Marty, and hates Norv Turner even more for not being Marty. They're going to get crushed in the playoffs again, but this time it'll be in New England)

New England -5.5 over DALLAS. Obviously, the game of the week. Two 5-0 teams, one AFC, the other NFC. It's being hyped as the Super Bowl. Dallas is fortunate to have Terrance Newman back to cover Randy Moss. New England is fortunate to have years of coaches' signals and game tapes in some vault in a remote location that is the sole reason for all their victories since Bill Belichick became coach. Joking. Don't believe that for a minute. But the whole Cameragate/Spygate controversy is fueling the Pats. They want the Super Bowl so badly this year, just to spite all the recent naysayers. I was watching SportsCenter last night with my girlfriend, a Cowboys' fan (for some reason). In all the locker room interviews, she couldn't understand why all the Patriots were hyping up Tony Romo like he was Joe Montana. She didn't get why they were being so complimentary of him. I told her that that is just what the Patriots do. They mind-fuck you, then they pummel you. Also, I don't think it helps the Cowboys' cause for articles and rumors like this to come out. The Patriots could win by 35 and I wouldn't be surprised; all I know is that they'll win, and I promised myself not to pick against them until they lost. In addition to all those things, I just picked up an interesting tidbit for this game: Randy Moss, in 6 career games against Dallas, has 29 receptions for 675 yards and 10 touchdowns. And he's never once lost to the Cowboys...

SEATTLE -6.5 over New Orleans. The Saints are not the team they were last year. Without Deuce to carry the workload, Reggie Bush becomes less valuable. Drew Brees is not playing anywhere to the level he's capable, and I'm supposed to think the offense will sort it out in the raucous environment of Qwest Field? I don't think so.

ATLANTA +3.5 over NY Giants. I like the home dog on Monday Night. Buffalo covered, why can't the Falcons?

Patriots Stunned By Mere 17-Point Victory

BOSTON—The Patriots organization is reeling this week following their narrow 34-17 victory over the lowly Browns, taking stock of their game-planning methods, philosophy, and indeed their entire season in the aftermath of a game in which...

Week 5 - WHEN THOSE SAINTS COME MARCHING IN

I'm headed off to the Big Easy early tomorrow to watch the Gators vs. Tigers CFB clash so this will be an abbreviated version of my picks. I'll be drinking and watching NFL on Bourbon street on Sunday so - um, go me! Maybe, I'll catch the Saints game, maybe I'll wake up face down in the gutter - either way I win:

Last week: 5-9
Season Record: 32-29

New Orleans (-3.5) over Carolina

KC (+2.5) over JAC

DET (+3.5) over WASH

ATL over TENN. (-8)

HOU (-5) over MIAMI

SEA (+6) over PITT

NE (-16) over CLE

ARIZ (-3.5) over STL

NYG (-3.5) over NYJ

INDY (-10) over TB

BALT. (-3.5) over SF

GB (-3.5) over CHI

DALL (-10.5) over BUF

Busted Stud of the week: Frank Gore (SF)

Sneaky play of the week: Ron Dayne (HOU)

From ESPN.COM - Trade like your life depends on it people.

Don't be shy: Trade!

by Christopher Harris

Enough pixel dust has been spilled over the psychology of the fantasy trade to choke a wood nymph. So today, let's talk about the psychology of the nontrade. If you are gun-shy, if the idea of dealing a fantasy stud makes your palms sweat, if your league mates refer to you alternately as "Pat Gillick" and "Oh Don't Bother E-mailing Him," this note's for you.

Trade. It's what you play for. Fantasy sports originated because a few very sun-deprived, very biceps-challenged individuals believed they could run a sports organization better than real-life general managers. "Shake things up!" they shouted over their agate box scores, Strat-O-Matic player cards and gazpacho. "Deal that bum! Call up that kid! And for god's sake, get rid of those Burger King uniforms!" (Note: that last cry was most typically heard among fans of the early-'80s San Diego Padres.) If you're going to invest emotionally in fake sports, you might as well be a fake Jack McKeon, right?

Fantasy football, in particular, begs for the wheeler to meet the dealer. We all act as though we absolutely know what to expect in August, we draft accordingly, and then LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore and Larry Johnson proceed to play like Moe, Larry, Curly and Shemp for a month. Meanwhile, the top point-getters in ESPN.com leagues include Derek Anderson, LaMont Jordan and the Minnesota defense. Collectively, we are Schultz from "Hogan's Heroes": We know nuth-thing. And we rarely get it right the first time.

But trading affords us the opportunity to get it right the second, third or fourth time. While generally speaking, I advise against dealing players who are extremely undervalued, or buying players who've monumentally surprised, so many more deals in fantasy football wind up being good and fun and worth it, rather than scary or soul-killing. Package three guys to get a stallion. Trade your extra wide receiver for a long-shot running back. The season, like life, is short. As Magnapop once intoned: "Careful stays and careless dies. But careless is and careful tries."

The best part about this is fantasy football may be the one such game where one deal can absolutely transform your squad. I guarantee there are at least five NFL players languishing unused on fantasy rosters from sea to shining sea who will, in the next two months, wind up blowing off your league's doors, causing upsets, unsettling favorites, inducing sneers. Go find those guys. I wish I could tell you who they'll be (read my Friday column, The Breakdown, every week for my latest ideas), but the truth is: Opportunity and circumstance will dictate these studs-in-waiting, and it's awfully hard to predict either of those things. So err on the side of gluttony. Deal for several players, stock them away like so many unfermented Bordeaux, awaiting the kind of chemical reaction that produces sweet results.

Make offers. Make counteroffers. Accept offers. Deal a pleasant surprise at the height of his grandeur, and take on a former stud who'll romp again. Pry a superstar away with your depth. Confuse your loyalties with your horse-trading. Cause your league mates' eyes to roll with your audacity.

This is what fantasy sports are for. Say yes.

From the Message Board

THE MORNING AFTER PILL - WEEK 4
Here goes it….

As much as it pain all of us, I have to start with Aaron and Team "It Was An Abortion Michael Like Our Fantasy Name Which Can't Get Any Longer But Maybe It Can…" Phenomenal win. Aaron was watching the Monday Night Game in Michael Irvin's living room at the Embassy Suites. He won the week when T.J Where'smyponytail caught Palmer's last pass of the game and got 100 yards on the nose. Aaron's reaction was like he just won an award at the Technical Emmys. "I haven't won a week since the Doping Agency! High-five bro!" he exclaimed. Up goes a Dubbs pic…..Frank the Tank takes the loss. I think next week Jed should start 4 or 5 Bears. Maybe pick up Kyle Orton or Desmond Clark at 4:20 am. Jed, we have to get the Bill Walsh Trophy out of your house. It's having a kryptonite like effect on you.

Let's give some love to Team Bumps. Hell, a standing ovation or maybe the wave. He put a stealth like hit on The Shocker. It was like the scene in Goodfellas when Morrie gets the screwdriver in the back of the neck. My sources in Diego tell me that amongst the dejection of all the Charger fans in the parking lot, Bumper was seen consoling a teary-eyed child in a wheelchair. He whispered to the kid, "it's okay sport, at least the Bloody Mary Mafia is back. I was down and out too. Just like you. But then I started Daunte and everything worked out. Keep your head up." And then he gave him his Hencho hat and did the "Culpepper Roll" for him. And then took his Hencho Hat back.

I'm at a loss for words with the Shocker. Don't give up Paul. I mean look at the Phillies, the 93' Bills, John Travolta, Ashlee Simpson. Comebacks really can happen.

How about Team Hemming! Grill Slappers dropped another "Ike Turner Uppercut" this week on 3 Foot Giant. It got so bad on Sunday afternoon that Mike had to wear a mouthpiece and he put a headgear on Julian to protect him from the punches. Vicious defeat. Mike pulled out all the stops. He even called the commish after a Jamal Lewis TD and told him that he meant to put him in that morning but his computer was down. Was there anything the commish could do? (True story) Aaron didn't even answer the question, but he did ask if he had any gigs coming up.

Early on it looked like Rusty Trombone was going to break a record we all thought would stand for eternity. Least Points Scored in a Single Game, 2005 – 14.5 Napoleon's Complex. (Side note: this Rockies/Padres game is amazing. Hey Paul, add the Rockies to that comeback list) Johnny Diamond should take Rusty T to Sizzler and thank him for that win. Diamond wins again with the Griese, Leinart, Gerrard shuffle. You could drink an entire bottle of Grey Goose with a King Cobra chaser and those QB's will still be a "3" when the bar closes.

Whiskey Dick was up big early. Dan Marino thought he was going to win the week. Then Mick looked at the logo and he was done. Guy unleashed the girl from the well and she bit Mick's head off. If you play Guy, tape a small piece of dark paper where his logo will be on your computer. It's your only chance.

You remember that scene in Mystic River that won Sean Penn the Oscar? He just found out his daughter was dead and it took an entire precinct to hold him back. Sunday – Greg – Chargers. But Team Motorboat is firing on all cylinders. Like a 67' Margaux, or the 60' Aston Martin Zagato or even the 72' Dolphins. Could this be the first team in history to go undefeated? Greg should enter this team in the $100,000 Fantasy Challenge in Vegas. Or maybe Greg should just take Irvin to Sizzler because that team is "a bum asking for change in the middle of an intersection". Sign says: Taking it in every hole – real hard. Will work for a Wide Receiver.

(Cue theme song from Hoosiers)

All I got is this blog men. My team is doo-doo. Michael Irvin is a one-hit wonder, a flash in the pan. I am the Faster Pussycat, the Faith No More, the Jimmy Eat World of our league. But I will never stop fighting, never stop battling. I will watch every game, I will scrap the bottom of every waiver wire looking for kickers, I will offer outlandish trades, I will change my logo every week, I will live on the block, I will post ridiculous polls, I will tell people at parties that our league is the best league, because fantasy makes reality easier men! Hollywood Packers! Grrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!

Draft Do-Over

This has been a crazy year for sure. If you followed conventional fantasy wisdom and drafted one of the big 4 (LT, Gore, LJ, S. Jackson) with your top four pick you might very well be looking at a 0-4 record going into week 5. You are correct to panic but don't feel alone. Here are 2007's top 5 at the key positions to date using standard Yahoo scoring:

RB
1. Ronnie Brown
2. Joseph Addai
3. Marion Barber III
4. Brian Westbrook
5. LT

Comments: Look for these numbers to even out by the midway point of the season with LT and LJ filtering back up to the top of the RB ranks. S. Jackson bust year will continue in a big way.

WR
1. Randy Moss
2. Plaxico Burress
3. Housh
4. Chad Johnson
5. Steve Smith

Through one quarter of the NFL schedule, the receivers have proven to be more consistent in many cases then the top RBs that went rounds earlier. The name guys that everyone expected to perform have done their jobs. Look for Randy Moss to continue his insane season. Currently on a pace to catch 28 TDs, Randy is this year's LT (circa 2006) caliber stud.

QB
1. Tony Romo
2. Tom Brady
3. Carson Palmer
4. Peyton Manning
5. Brett Favre

I have Tony Romo on three of my four teams and I'd like to say I predicted this kind of success, but that would be a lie. Tom Brady and the Patriots will continue to get all the press since he wins Super Bowls and has sex with super models but Tony Romo came out of nowhere to lead his Cowboys to an undefeated first quarter of the season. This list of players further demonstrates why it is never a good idea to use an early pick on a QB. Obviously you are doing fine with Peyton on your squad but you overpaid for him and missed out on a good RB or WR. Worst case, you nabbed Drew Brees early. All I can say is hopefully the waiver wire is kind to you.

Defense: (in a league where kick return TDs count)
1. Minnesota
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Pittsburgh
5. New England

These lists will change significantly between now the end of the season but you should just realize there was no way you could of foreseen these ridiculous results from the early NFL season. With a few savvy trades, some waiver wire vigilance and a strong stomach you can claw your way back. Just keep after it.