POTENTIAL - Why Cedric will take you to the promised land.

You give me still pictures and I give you moving images. There is a metaphor for my analysis vs. yours if ever there was one. I know you are stuck in the past loving what T. Jones did last year. Lets take a closer look and figure out what Cedric is and is not capable of as the undisputed #1 back in Chicago THIS YEAR. We'll take it point by point so even you can follow along.


1) Talent: Cedric was a four-year starter at The University of Texas, where he received the Doak Walker Award as the nation's top running back in 2004. He finished his college career with 5,540 rushing yards to rank sixth all time in NCAA Division 1A history, and second only to Ricky Williams in school history. You need only look at a small sample from his highlight reel to see the burst and balance that allowed him to excel at the highest level of college football. Cedric was the fourth pick in the 2005 NFL draft. Admittedly, all of that and about $4 will get you a cup of coffee at Starbucks but I am only setting the stage.

2) Team: You accurately pointed out that Cedric will start the year as the undisputed #1 RB for the Chicago Bears in one of the weakest divisions in football. This means instead of sharing carries with a high draft pick like Thomas Jones did last year, he will get most if not all the important (read - goal line) carries. The Bears also boast a solid if not excellent veteran line and one of if not the best defenses in the league. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the Bear's run game, consider that the two headed RB of "Thomas Benson" rushed 453 times for 1857 yards and 12 TDs. (Compare to Larry Johnson's 416 rushes for 1789 and 17). Both Cedric and TJ rushed for an average of 4.1 yards per carry. Lets think about this. A strong running team with a great defense playing in Chicago during December and November. If I am a GM or coach it might make sense to focus your team on good defense and a strong running game if you are playing in that climate. If those two staples are your bread and butter do you make a move like the TJ trade without feeling good about your new franchise back?

3) TJ vs. CB: The Tale of the tape - If you say college pedigrees, 40 yard dash times and bench press numbers aren't convincing then how about carries where it counts.

Carries between the 19 and 1 yrd line
TJ: 39 carries / 109 yrds / 2.8 yrds per carry / 5 TDs /12% of red zone carries resulted in TDs*

CB: 21 carries / 59 yrds / 2.8 yrds per carry / 5 TDs / 24% of red zone carries resulted in TDs*

*Note, neither CB or TJ scored a receiving TD in the red zone in 2006.

If you project forward to this year and assume the same level of offensive and red zone running efficiency (24%) except with CB taking all of the red zone touches that translates into:

2007 Rushing Projection: 60 red zone carries / 14 TDs

In case you are wondering how these numbers stack up against the competition cosider the following red zone stats from 2006:

Steven Jackson: 57 carries / 10 TDs / 18% success rate

LJ: 76 carries / 17 TDs / 22% success rate

CB: 21 carries / 5 TDs / 24% success rate

MJD: 32 carries / 10 TDs / 31% success rate

LT: 73 carries / 24 TDs / 33% success rate

Now I admit this assumes Cedric stays healthy. He has already missed time with shoulder and knee problems while TJ seemed to always be available. To this I would respond that his injury history was solid in college and football is a violent sport. There is no way to know if he will get hurt in the preseason or never be injured again but TJ could blow a knee out in the preseason so you can't plan for the unknown unless your hoard RBs (another blog entirely).

4) What to expect in 2007:
As I've already demonstrated, Ced stands to be the beneficiary of the perfect storm for RBs in a good way. He is the #1 guy in a run heavy offense in a terrible division with a DST squad that will get him all the chances he needs to punch in all important fantasy gold otherwise known as the TD. Pass him up at your own risk. If you grab him in the third round you are paving the way to a league championship. Grab him in the second and you have a strong to dominate RB2 with RB1 upside. He will slip in most drafts and one lucky owner in each league will reap the benefits.