Week 4 - Almost the quarter-way point

Last week: 8-8
Season Record: 27-20

MINNESOTA over Green Bay (-1.5). Minny's D is the best fantasy D in the league bar none. Greenbay and Brett Favre like to start fast but usually flame out. I'm not predicting GB's demise yet, I just don't think this is their week. The Minny fill-in QB will be a passing improvement over Tavaris Jackson and A. Peterson will run wild. He is the next great running back in the game.
Start: Peterson, Minny D / Sit Favre, Any GB running back

Houston over ATLANTA (+3) Joey will nail a few more nails into his career coffin with a sub-par outing against a surprisingly good Houston D. As a Lion's fan I feel comfortable guaranteeing a sub-par outing after a decent outing last week.
Start: Dayne, Roddy White / Sit: Joey

New York Jets over BUFFALO (+3.5). Buffalo will trot out a rookie in Trent Edwards. Look for T. Jones to carry the load in a slug fest between wretched teams.
Start: T. Jones, L. Coles, M. Lynch / Sit: Lee Evans

Baltimore (-4) over CLEVELAND. For all the progress and life the Browns have shown on offense with their outburst vs. Cincy and the emergence of Braylon and Soldier their defense will ultimatly be their undoing. Jamal will not get revenge this day as the Baltimore front will shut him down. Braylon will get behind Corey Ivy and company at least once for a long touchdown.
Start: Mcgahee, Mason, Braylon / Sit: J. Lewis

DALLAS (-13) over St. Louis. The only thing that will get in Romo's way will be the fact this Ram's D is so leaky on the ground their be no need to pass. That said, I think TO will still come out of this one with over 100 yards and a TD.
Start: TO, Barber/ Sit: Bulger

DETROIT (+3) over Chicago. The Bear's D is hurting but the Lion's is as well and they don't have all the injuries to use as an excuse. Last week's defensive lapses at Philly are all the more disheartening for the Lion's faithful because the cover-2 is supposed to be a D that limits the "Explosive Play" (i.e. plays from scrimmage whether they be via pass or run that amount to a 20 or more yard gain) by keeping everything "in front of the D". Both the Vikings and the Eagles went max-protect and ran 2 man patterns where their speed receivers ran right by the Lion's deep safteys. I see no reason Berrian will not do the same. The Lion's O will have a softer matchup than most expect but they will have to avoid falling behind by a lot since this group (as injured as they are) are disciplined and well coached.
Start: Griese, Berrian, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Jon Kitna / Sit:Bear's DST, Cedric Benson

MIAMI (-4) over Oakland. Lamont Jordan is living up to all the hype he has.....last year. He may be a season last but owners should expect him to continue his torrid rushing pace this week against a Miami D that hasn't been that special. The Oakland D was billed as a great pass D last year but they've shown themselves to be vulnerable. Watch for Chris Chambers to do his normal damage and help Miami pull this one out.
Start: Chambers, Ronnie Brown, Jordan / Sit: Ronald Curry, Culpepper

SAN FRANCISCO over Seattle (-2). Seattle doesn't stop the run particularly well and Gore is all SF has in its arsenal. They are going to saddle him up and ride him to victory.
Start: Hasselbeck, Gore, Branch / Sit: Alexander

Tampa Bay (+3) over CAROLINA. Outside of Minny, TB is my surprise fantasy defense. Most "experts" branded them too old but Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber has been able to hold it down on the outside in the Tampa-2 while Cato June, rookie DE Gaines Adams and 10,000 year vet Derrick Brooks are keeping other team's run games at bay. Carolina has David Carr throwing to S. Smith which is akin to putting Corolla tires on your Ferrari (sorry X-body).
Start: Tampa DST, Carnell Williams, Joey Galloway, D. Forster / Sit: D. Williams

ARIZONA (+6) over Pittsburgh . The move to play Warner probably came as a bit of a surprise to Baltimore last week. Obviously Pitt has a week to prepare for that change. What they will not be ready for is the Arizona heat. Veteran QB play, ultra-talented wide receivers and the hot Arizona sun at 1pm in the afternoon will combine to force the upset of the week. Look for Edge to be shut down for the most part and Card's safety Adrian Wilson to neutralize Fast Willie by becoming a permanent fixture down in the box.
Start: Boldin, Fitz, S. Holmes / Sit: Edge, Leinart

SAN DIEGO (-11.5) over Kansas City . This game will come down to who has the better passing attack as both side's once dominant run games have sputtered. Bank on the talented Charger's skill position players to make the passing game go.
Start: LT, Gates, Rivers / Sit: LJ, Huard, Bowe

Denver over INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) . Denver touts their pass D as unbeatable and opponents usually head the warning and stick to the ground game. Ranked 27th in rush D as of last week, Denver's almost inviting teams to take that course of action. Peyton Manning and the boys are one of the few teams that will seldom let the defense dictate their style of offensive play. This week the Bronco's superior secondary play will dictate the Colts take a more measured offensive approach centered on the running of Joseph Addai and underneath routes to Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark. If the Colt's rookie left tackle is out with an ankle injury, a close game could turn into a major upset. Brandon Marshall will further assert himself as one of the better young WRs in the league. Think a mix between Larry Fitzgerald and A. Boldin. Grab him now if you are in a keeper league.
Start: Dallas Clark, Addai, Brandon Marshall / Sit: Harrison, Wayne

Philadelphia (-3) over NY GIANTS. I like Westbrook to repeat his performance from last week.
Start: Westbrook, McNabb, Ward Sit: Curtis

New England (-7) over Cincinnati. Does anyone in the world thing the Bengals have a shot? I sure don't. If NE has any kind of weakness (is said IF), it has to be in the secondary without Harrison in. We know NE will jump all over a poor Cincy D causing Carson and the boys to pass to catch up. He will get sacked all day long. It will get ugly. I promise.
Start: Moss, Brady, Maroney, Housh Sit: Carson, Cincy DST (duh!)

Busted Stud of the week: Peyton Manning- In years past the Colts have picked on the corner back opposite Champ Bailey with great results. This year look for Bailey to match-up on Wayne and Dre Bly to match up on Harrison. Manning will not be shut out but he will be forced to rely on Addai and the underneath routes to move the ball. The Colts can still be productive since the Bronco pass rush is sub-par but Manning's numbers will suffer.

Sneaky play of the week: Dallas Clark - Peyton will find someone open and Dre and Champ can't cover everyone.