2007 Barney's Beanery FFB Draft - Revisited

Here are my rankings for this year's edition of the Barney's Beanery FFB league draft. This is not how I think the league will play out. Obviously, I will win it all. This is just a critique exploring who had too much beer to drink by the 4th round and who was actually paying attention.


Final Draft Rankings:

1) Jamestown Rainmakers / Average Score: 7.05

2) Jacaranda Jack / Average Score: 6.95

3) THOSE 2 BLACK GUYS - Average Score: 6.75

4) The Lawn Wranglers / Average Score: 6.7125

5) Go Rt Through / Fuck OU / Average Score: 6.6375

6) Kate's Section / Average Score: 6.5625

7) Breakfast by Yelly / Average Score: 6.45

8) TV Nazi / Average Score: 6.4375

9) Pitbull's Revenge / Average Score: 6.4

10) New Orleans Taints / Average Score: 6.35


Feel free to disagree and please comment if you do. We'll revist this post later in the year to see how accurate I was.

(by draft order)
1. THOSE 2 BLACK GUYS - Average Score: 6.75/10

RBs - I love the RBs. How could you not love LT. Also, I write extensivley on this site about my love affair with Benson. I will give this group an 8 out of 10 only because T2BG failed to land the all important handcuff for LT of Burner Turner. T2BG picked Jerricho in the 7th who will be your #3WR instead of Turner. Most people will say you picked a potential starter over a backup and that makes sense but I will argue you needed to overpay for Turner and you could have taken advantage of a ton of late round WR depth to take Jerricho's place. I love the Minny O-line so one of their RBs could do some damage. RB rating: 8/10
WRs- Assuming you have to start Jerricho as a flex due to Taylor and AP splitting carries this group is a little thin. I'm not sure how you are going to deal with bye weeks and I am not a Bruce fan at all. At that 10th round pick you passed up D.J Hackett, Greg Jennings and Kevin Curtis all of which I think will outproduce Issac. All that said, Marvin and Marques will produce and Jerricho may never sniff your starting lineup if only one of the Minny RBs gets meaningful carries. WR: Rating: 6.75/10
QB: I love this position group because of Bulger's consistency and Alex Smith's upside. Bulger was one of the last elite QBs on the board at the time. He is not in Carson, Drew or Peyton's group in terms of big games but he is very strong. QB Rating: 6.5/10
TE/DST: You picked a mediocre D late and a promising young TE (Click Clack!). I am giving you a bonus point because I am confident Vernon will be a stud. You will remember last year fondly (he had Balt. D) after you switch D's for the 15th time this year. TE/DST Rating: 5.75/10

Average Score: 6.75/10

2. Go Rt Through / Fuck OU / Average Score: 6.6375/10

RBs - Jackson was the no-brainer pick at 2. He could end up having a better year than LT if things fall just right. Jacobs is a potential pick but risk/reward dictates that you take the undisputed #1 RB on a good run team and don't look back. This group falls way off after those two.Norwood will lose touches to Dunn even though Dunn is ancient. The wildcard with the Flacons is their new coaching staff. Petrino is scraping the zone blocking run scheme in favor of a more traditional hat on hat scheme. We are all familiar with the new Falcon's QB and his track record which should point to a focus away from the pass and on the run but only time will tell. Jerious is a serviceable flex play most weeks. Bush and Turner may never see meaningful snaps this year so depth in this qroup is non-existent. LT is made of granite - he ain't going nowhere. Might of been better served stashing away Droughns (Jacob's B/U).

RB rating: 6.7/10

WRs- Strong WR group. Walker and Johnson are basically 2 WR1s. Bennett needs to take over the WR2 job for the Rams to make this group dangerous. I don't see Gonzales having the veteran savvy to excel in the Brandon Stokley WR3 role in Indy. WR: Rating: 7/10
QB: Martz + sick receivers + always playing from behind = QB stud. Kitna may throw more ints than he did last year (21) and still end up a top 3 FFB QB. If he goes down, prepare to hit the FA/waiver wire hard. Risky but could pay off huge. QB Rating: 6.15/10
TE/DST: Never bet against Belichick on D. Always assume Shockey is going to disappoint with an injury. TE/DST Rating: 6.7/10
Average Score: 6.6375/10

3. New Orleans Taints / Average Score: 6.35/10

RBs - Larry is Larry. He will sign and be his normal stud self. He may not challenge any records this year but he will end the season as a top 5 back. Thomas Jones is already injured and at the end of the day he simply doesn't punch in goal line opportunities well enough to be a strong RB2. Watch for Leon to take valuable 3rd down and RZ touches and steal a few TDs from TJ. I am not in the D. Williams fan club but he is a solid flex start and decent value in the 7th rd.Great depth at this position.

RB rating: 6.4/10

WRs- OY VEY! AJ didn't score much last year and they haven't really addressed the problems which caused that. Their QB is still a ? and there is no other WR to take the heat off him. I see AJ as strictly a moderate WR2 who will pile up yardage but struggle to get to 5-6 TDs. Dyslexico and Eli will be inconsistent and underwhelming assuming Burress can even stay healthy. Ashley????? We had a girl in our league last year named Ashley. While I would imagine the Bronco's Ashley is faster in the 40 I think our Ashley outproduces theirs if she gets to start at receiver on an NFL team. Ashley is currently 3rd string on the 9ers. Porter in the 15th round might be the hidden gem. I forcast him putting up WR2 numbers when its all said and done.
WR: Rating: 3.5/10

QB: I'll take Brady any day of the week. Lock him your lineup and leave him there. You picked him early with your 3rd rd pick passing up on several stud WRs (TO, Holt, Fitz among others). He might make up for that with a career year. Delhomme may not even be the starter in Carolina by the time Brady's bye rolls around so keep an eye open for fill-ins. Studs can carry you, Brady is a stud. QB Rating: 7.5/10

TE/DST: Start with the bad - your TEs are striaght-up walking wounded. LJ has some sort of hernia thing that will slow him this year and his value depends on McNabb staying healthy. K2 is talented but his knee is swiss cheese and the Brown's QB situation is weak at best. The good - You grabbed Balt D in the 6th 4 spots after Chicago. They could be the #1 FFB DST by a long shot if they field a credible return threat. Baltimore is agressive and looks to pick, strip and score at ever opportunity. These guys along with Brady and LJ will carry your squad week to week. When its all said and done who cares about TEs. TE/DST Rating: 8/10

Average Score: 6.35/10
(Prediction - you will trade RB depth for a WR at some point)

4. Kate's Section (This is me explaining why I did what I did - feel free to disagree) / Average Score: 6.5625/10
RBs - Gore is on the doorstep of a breakout season. Injury concerns have to factor into the conversation (both the broken hand and history of injury and surgery). MJD will share time with Fragile Fred this year. He did OK (15 TDs) in that role last year and I am skeptical Fred Taylor stays healthy 2 yrs in a row. I am not worried about Greg Jones stealing GL carries. I think he moves to fullback. Deuce should be a solid flex assuming Peyton uses him the same way they did last year. This group falls short on depth as there isn't anything behind the top 3 guys. The rating turns on how well and how much Kevin Jones ends up playing for the Lions. The potential is there to field 4 top 15 RBs by the end of the year but KJ makes this a gamble.
RB rating: 6.5/10
WRs- I feel very good about this position group. TO and Housh match up with any WR combo in the league. I am really excited about my WR sleepers picked from the 7th rd on (Galloway, Henderson, Curtis).
WR: Rating: 7.2/10 (based on proven production, sleeper upside and depth)
QB: I like not love Romo. I clearly reached for him in the 6th when Rivers and Hasselback went in the 9th. In hindsight I was too excited about having the TO/Romo connection. I also wanted D-Nabb one pick earlier. Big Ben in the 12th redeems me a bit since he might very well become my everyweek starter at some point.
QB Rating: 6.5/10
TE/DST: Cooley will end up being a top 5 tightend at worse and the Chargers will continue to rack up sacks playing the pass and protecting leads. Darren Sproles will be this year's Devin Hester with multiple KR/PR TDs.
TE/DST Rating: 6.5/10
Average Score: 6.5625/10

5. Pitbull's Revenge / Average Score: 6.4/10
RBs - Three backs in the first three rounds. Sounds familiar. If this were baseball you'd be batting .333 as only Addai will do anything remotely befiting a 1st, 2nd or 3rd round pick. Edge was weak last year and sadly his coach couldn't bring the Steeler OL with him. Ronnie is talented but his OL and QB are mediocre at best. Deshaun and Julius Jones could go either way but I like them as later round picks. Lots of depth but few difference makers.
RB rating: 6.2/10
WRs- WR1 - Roy / WR2 Moss / WR3 Braylon - This is great group who is potentially dominate if Moss lives up to the hype. I'm not buying what Randy is sellin'. Great sleeper picks round out the group (Hackett / Jennings).
WR: Rating: 6.85/10
QB: D-Nabb is back and he is ready to carry your team on his back. Great pick in the 6th (I was going for one pick prior) and he may very well turn out to be a top 3 QB. You need insurance with Donovan's knee and Hasselback is perfect for that purpose in the 9th. He is easily a starter on around half the teams in this league. You had the best QB draft of any manager in the league.
QB Rating: 7.55/10
TE/DST: Carolina may surprise but I am betting you are planning on playing DST musical chairs based on matchup. There is really nothing wrong with that other than when the matchups suck. Heath is a viable target but the more they go to 3 and 4 WR sets the less PT he will see.
TE/DST Rating: 5/10
Average Score: 6.4/10

6. Breakfast by Yelly / Average Score: 6.45
RBs - Great RB depth and Alexander might very well be the best value RB in the 1st round. Assuming he is fully healthy he could approach his 2003/2004 numbers. Barber, Lynch and Betts give you 4 servicable FFB plays to cement some of the best RB depth in the league. If Lynch realizes his potential this group will be special. This group is all about potential.
RB rating: 6.1/10
WRs- Steve Smith is potentially the LT of the receiver group. Bold move going after him in the 2nd rd. You ended up with solid starters across the board and really didn't suffer for the choice. Going 4 deep at the WR position combined with RB depth will give you tons of trade options down the road.
WR: Rating: 7.4/10
QB: Rivers and Leinart are a solid platoon for sure. Rivers in the 9th is a great value. You have to think you will plug him in and leave him to improve on last year's impressive numbers. I am projecting a decline for both Boldin and Fitzgerald with the new coaching staff but Leinart will still be an excellend spot starter and could surprise in the new offense if play action passing becomes more of a weapon for them with an improved run game.
QB Rating: 6.2/10
TE/DST: Steeler's D isn't what it once was and neither is McMichael. They are both decent weekly plays and you will use them and do well more often than not.
TE/DST Rating: 6.1/10
Average Score: 6.45

7. The Lawn Wranglers / Average Score: 6.7125
RBs - One stud and two solid yet unremarkable starters who are the clear #1s on their respective teams makes this a viable group. Not bad considering draft position. There isn't much there after those guys.
RB rating: 5.9/10
TV Nazi / Average Score: 6.4375- Holt and Lee Evans stack up well against every other team's top 2 WRs. Depth is spotty after them.
WR: Rating: 6.2/10
QB: Vince Young could explode or he could fall prey to the Madden cover jinx and get struck by lighting or a meteor. Young and Cutler at worst, will be servicable. I like that you went out and tried to get a WR that each of them throws to. I am not a VY fan and I love Madden.
QB Rating:5 .75/10
TE/DST: Bears / Antonio Gates - FFB is all about difference makers and you went out and grabbed 2 definite ones.
TE/DST Rating: 9/10
Average Score: 6.7125

8. TV Nazi / Average Score: 6.4375/10

RBs - This is the all potential squad at RB. If Maroney and Henry live up to their potential then look out.Your RB3 is a question mark with two young players. This will likely be a feast (7)or famine (5) year. I will split the difference.
RB rating: 6/10
WRs- Outside of Larry Fitz your WR draft reads like a whos-who of WR sleeper picks. Problem is some of them went a little earlier than most people are drafting them. This kind of pick prevents you from using a high pick on another position. Bottom line is if a few of them blow up and your other positions work out it will not matter where the WRs were drafted. I like their upside overall.
WR Rating: 6.45/10
QB: People are speculating that Brees will regress after a great 2006 but I this Bush's continued maturation in the offense will guarantee another banner year. Losman could be a sleeper but he faces a tough schedule.
QB Rating: 7/10
TE/DST: Philly could surprise with a great year defensivly. They also have a great kick returner in Jeremy Bloom playing this year for the first time (injured knee last year). I love this pick in the 11th. They could be top 3 if Kearse stays healthy and Spikes plays well. I actually like Alge assuming his knee holds up. Joey isn't comfortable winging it down field so Alge might become his security blanket while he wets the proverbial bed for yet another NFL franchise.
TE/DST Rating: 6.3/10
Average Score: 6.4375/10

9. Jamestown Rainmakers / Average Score: 7.05

RBs - Westbrook, Portis, Bush, Tatum Bell - WOW! Great depth and talent especially when you consider the draft position. Assuming Portis regains his past form this could be the premiere RB group in the league.
RB rating: 8.1/10
WRs - Injuries and age will be an issue for this group but a trade for a premiere WR later in the year is likely. If you assume good health this group still needs to deal with being hugely inconsistent. Never before has someone done less with opportunities than Chambers - he is not a good receiver. Moss will have a lot of 3 catch / 45 yrd statlines punctuated by games where he goes for 150+ and 2 TDs.
WR Rating: 6.3/10
QB: Carson could be the number one overall QB this year. He is a good QB.
QB Rating: 7.8/10
TE/DST: Gonzo is going to stay in and block a bunch this year with the Chief's o-line situation so I don't expect much but I love the Dolphins with their shiny new kick returner and their schedule playing 5 first year QBs. Joey Porter is also pretty good.
TE/DST Rating: 6/10
Average Score: 7.05

10. Jacaranda Jack / Average Score: 6.95/10

RBs - Rudi is Rudi - he will produce his 12 TDs and 1500 yrds. The rest of the RBs promise to be decent. I actually like Caddy more than most since Alstot will not be stealing any of his TDs this year. If Garcia plays as well as he did in Philly then Caddy could breakout.
RB rating: 5.95/10
WRs- This is a great group of WRs lead by Wayne who will rack up some points with Peyton. DJack and Hines will do what they normally do and Clayton is in his 3rd yr albeit on a mediocre passing team.
WR: Rating: 6.75/10
QB: Peyton will either be #1 or #2 overall this year among QBs. Nuff said. Eli is a fraud.
QB Rating: 8.5/10
TE/DST: Dallas should improve on D with their new head coach bringing the Chargers brand of high pressure D to Big D. They are loaded with young, explosive talent. Heap will be steady as the defacto go-to WR in Baltimore. Consistency is the name of his game.
TE/DST Rating: 6.6/10
Average Score: 6.95/10

X-Body's Breakouts

Davcat,

You've seen my comments on your guys, now see my picks, by position.

QB - Big Ben. As I went over in the comments section of your post, Davecat, I see Ben as rebounding this year after the appendectomy and motorcycle accident that slowed him last year. Every report I have read about Steelers' camp is that they are committed to enabling Ben to throw more, and to take on more responsibility with the audibles at the line of scrimmage. Ben will continue to have Fast Willie Parker in his backfield to balance the attack, which can really open up the play action game. Hines Ward will be his usual productive self, with Heath Miller and Santonio Holmes stepping up for solid years as well. BigBen, despite the injuries/accidents last year, still did put up 3,500 yards. What hurt him though were his 18 touchdowns to 23 interceptions; look for him to reach 3,700 yards, 24 TD's, and 10 INT's.

Other QB Breakout - Jeff Garcia, TB. Jeff Garcia's ability to energize the Eagles last year and lead them to a division title was eye opening to say the least, especially coming off an atrocious spell in Cleveland. Jon Gruden turned an aging Rich Gannon into a stud, and while I don't think Garcia will reach the same level of success, you can expect to get this guy to get great value, even snagging him off the waiver wire. Garcia's pick leads nicely into my WR breakout of...

WR - Joey Galloway. In the past two seasons, Joey Galloway has finished fifth and fifteenth in fantasy receiving, but it almost always overlooked (except by Davcat, who selected him in our draft on Sunday). Despite his age (35), he will still be able to make significant contributions because he remains the team's prime target. With Garcia bringing some much needed stability to the QB position, I see Galloway approaching his 2005 numbers of 1,287 yards and 10 TDs, but not quite reaching that mark. Look for 1,100 and 8, which will still be a steal no matter what late round you land this guy in.

Other WR breakout - Javon Walker, Denver. Coming off an ACL injury and an offseason move from Green Bay to Denver, Walker did well last year, bringing in 69 balls for 1,000 and 8 TD's. And that was half a season with Jake Plummer, half with Jay Cutler. With an entire offseason and training camp to work on their timing, I love this duo to excel, especially with Travis Henry giving them a solid run game that they've lacked since the Clinton Portis departure.
Roy Williams - In his first three years, he's put up almost 2,500 yards and 23 TD's, and that's with no quarterback, no running game, and no other receiver to take away the double teams. Enter Calvin Johnson, and watch Roy emerge as the class of the NFC. Steve Smith and Terrell Owens will both be chasing 'The Toy'.

RB - Julius Jones. I know Marion Barber scored 16 touchdowns last year. I know Barber will steal 3rd down/short yardage and goal line carries from Jones, but this is this year, not last. Parcells was partial to Barber, but Wade Phillips comes in this year and the playing field has been leveled again. Jones has the tools to be a more productive NFL back, and I think Tony Romo will utilize him more as a receiver. But the most telling sign that Julius will have a breakout year...he's up for a new contract. This is Jones' shot to either prove he can carry the load for Dallas, or any team for that matter, or if he'll be someone who splits time his whole career. I'm guessing he steps up to the tune of 1,200 yards and 8 touchdowns. Don't believe Jones can, and will, emerge as the featured back? Read this article.

Other RB breakouts - Travis Henry. Perhaps it's too easy to pick him, based on his 4.5 per carry avg. last year, but this year, in Denver, he could go for 1,500.

Chester Taylor - Thomas Jones was nothing more than a mediocre back when Chicago drafted Cedric Benson, and what did that do to Jones? It lit a fire under his ass. For all the talent that Adrian Peterson has, he's made of glass. An ankle, a collarbone...this guy just couldn't stay on the field, and that was in college. Now, he'll have the Brian Urlachers and Ernie Sims of the NFC North stalking him. I think Peterson's arrival motivates Taylor to at least match his 1,200 yards from last year. Value pick with an upside...don't pass him up as he falls and falls.

TE - Since I've already said I like Big Ben, might as well stick with his TE in Heath Miller. I don't think it's out of the question at all for Miller to almost double his 35 receptions from last year. I like him for 58 receptions, 675 yards, and 8 TD's. Also, really like Randy McMichael paired up with Marc Bulger's arm and the St. Louis offense.

DEF/ST - Kansas City. They have to play in San Diego and Indianapolis, but other than that, this veteran infused defense (Ty Law, Patrick Surtain, Donnie Edwards) has a great looking schedule throughout the year. With emerging youngters Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Jared Allen, expect low scoring games and forced turnovers.