Oct 19 Drew was limited in Thursday's practice with a thigh injury, according to the Florida Times-Union.
Recommendation: We expect Drew to play in the Jaguars' biggest game of the season, this Monday night against Indianapolis.
Tennessee over HOUSTON +1.5 - Let's flash back 2 months. Everyone was getting sick of the exhibition season and busy finishing the final touches on their respective cheat sheets. Someone please explain to me why the ignorant masses were so into Vinny Young. This scatter shoot armed QB will never be a great pure passer (like Brady) and his running will only land him on the injury report (like this week). Tennessee's D is surprisingly solid and most of the credit probably should go to Jeff Fischer. All that said, this is going to be a replay of the Tennessee vs. Atlanta game from 2 weeks ago. The punchless Texans and Andre Johnson-less Texans will struggle to run against the Titan's defensive front and fail to move the ball through the air with their cast of no-name receivers. Look for Bironas and Brown to engage in a field goal duel with a Tennessee defensive score as the difference.
Pittsburgh over DENVER +3.5 - Willie Parker and the Steelers come off their bye week fresh, prepped and ready to face the worst rushing D in the league. Denver is missing their center and #1 WR in Javon Walker. Pittsburgh will hold the ball all afternoon and take this one with ease.
DETROIT -3 over Tampa Bay - Mike Martz and 2 weeks to prepare SHOULD be a good thing for the Lions. Washington completely disarmed the high powered Lion's passing attack by dropping 7 into umbrella coverage, keeping everything in front of them and hitting the crap out of the Lion's receivers when they caught the ball. Tampa Bay doesn't have Washington's personnel and it is doubtful they would stray much from their traditional cover 2 look. Watch for Kevin Jones to play a prominent role as the starter (something I mentioned over a month ago) catching the ball short out of the backfield and running the Buc's older LB crew all over the field.
New England -16.5 over MIAMI - "Stick with the Pats until they lose." I agree with Xbody on this one (for this week). Next week vs. Washington is another story entirely.
NEW ORLEANS -9 over Atlanta - We always joke about how Fantasy makes you watch horrible games you would otherwise have no interest in. This is one of those except if you pinned your season hopes on either of these squads then you probably gave up on fantasy football and are currently mapping out your fantasy basketball draft strategy. NO demonstrated they still have a pulse last week beating Seattle at SEA and if they can put together a solid outing here then maybe things are turning around. I just traded Colston away in one of my money leagues so I won't be there to see it happen. My recent weekend in The Big Easy makes me root for these guys a little. As an aside, Bourbon street smells so much like vomit you wouldn't believe it. It makes your eyes water.
NEW YORK -9 over San Francisco - I find the Giant's defensive transformation from sieve to top flight fantasy defense to be amazing. I'm sure it has a lot to do with the emergence of a clock grabbing running game and the three-headed RB monster of Jacobs, Droughns and Ward. With either a gimpy Alex Smith or an old Trent Dilfer the Giants will be waiting at the line of scrimmage for Frank Gore, content to allow the Niner's anemic receiving corp. run themselves into coverage. If Eli can sting some turnover free games together this will start look like a team that could challenge Dallas in the NFC.
Baltimore -3 over BUFFALO - Ray might very well sit this one out but it will not matter one bit.
WASHINGTON -8.5 over Arizona - I grabbed Washington D in a few leagues anticipating a blood bath of sorts where the Cardinal's journey man QB throws multiple picks and the Cardinal offense gets bogged down trying to run against a stacked D front. That is what should happen but if both stud Cardinal receivers play maybe this guy pulls a Vinny and makes it close. I watched this Skin secondary dismantle the Lion's 2 weeks ago so they should be fine here. The tie break in this analytical deadlock is the fact the Hogs will be at home.
Kansas City +2.5 over OAKLAND - Larry SHOULD have some success running the ball but I think the Oakland D is willing to take their chances with Gozo and Bowe. Expect Larry's YPR average to be under 4 again as he is consistently greeted by 8 Raiders in the box. That said, neither Michael Huff nor Stuart Schweigart are Steve Atwater types so the Cheifs still probably roll anyway.
CINCINNATI -6.5 over NY Jets - Don't underestimate the impact of team dysfunction and bad offensive line play. The once consistent Rudi Johnson, he of 1300/12 TD seasons, has been awol with a bad hamstring as of late and Chad Johnson has been running his mouth in a bad way. This should be on of those over games for Vegas types as both teams refuse to play defense. Housh continues an quietly amazing season among the leaders at his position.
PHILLY over Chicago +5.5 - These defenses are similar in many ways. Both live off their reputation from a few seasons ago. In reality, while both have decent to excellent pass rush capability their run stopping has been spotty at best. With Westbrook, the Eagles have the decided advantage over Cedric Benson and will exploit it all day. Play action will make Donovan dangerous and the Eagles will role. The only way this one goes the Bear's way is if they kick it to Hester. That said, please do since I want to see it.
SEATTLE -9.5 over St. Louis - Seattle should run these guys out of the building. Shaun Alexander and Steven Jackson have been statistical equivalents for much of the year. Problem is Steven stopped playing games in week 3. Is it time to call Alexander over the hill as an NFL RB? I certainly think so. Watch him slip big time next year in fantasy drafts.
DALLAS over Minnesota +9.5 - I will follow conventional wisdom here and say that the Cowboys and going to take care of Adrian Peterson at home. The Lions did it, how hard could it be???? Big day for Romo and the boys through the air (obviously) as they approach this one with a chip on their shoulder after last week. The goal from this point forward has to be a rematch with the Patriots the last game of the year. TO starts his run here with a monster game.
JACKSONVILLE over Indianapolis -3 - My bet is Jacksonville springs the upset. This one should have some fireworks for sure. Without a consistent run game (due to the Jag D front) and with a gimpy Marvin Harrison, Peyton will make some mistakes and give this one away in the 4th. MJD will do his best Barry Sanders impression with 130 and 2.
Busted Stud of the week: Peyton Manning - Peyton runs into a D designed to stop his team on the road. The result is a sub-par game (for Peyton).
Sneaky Play of the week: Bobby Engram - Filling Branch's flanker role, Engram should light up a suspect St. Louis defensive backfield.
Fantasy Report: Xbody vs. Davecat - Xbody got did get the best of me in our week 5 match up 92.65 - 78.73. Notable players for him that week included Ben Watson (18+ pts) who I traded him the week before and the Houston kicker Kris Brown (23 pts) who he randomly picked up to fill in a Shayne Graham bye week. To me, that screams "born with a horseshoe up his ass" luck, the kind of luck he is unlikely to experience again. He and I are 2nd and 3rd overall in the league respectively behind the "genius" who happened to draft this year's LT, Tom "3 TDs a game" Brady (and Ashley Lelie....um, yeah). I actually lead Xbody in overall points 542 to 537. With no more regular season match ups, I'll have to dispose of him in the playoffs (if he makes it). Watch out for Randy Moss hamstring injuries. Being one year older than Randy, I can attest to the wear and tear age wreaks on your body. It will be that much sweeter when the Brady - Moss connection is derailed and Braylon propels me past his nosediving squad.
Go Lions & Go Blue and Go Kate's Section
After a nice 8-3-2 week, I'm ready to keep things rolling. Let's get right to it.
HOUSTON +1.5 over Tennessee. Vince Young abused Houston, his hometown, last year. This year, and this week in particular, will be different, as VY is nursing a quad injury. He'll lose his elusiveness, and if he plays, his arm doesn't scare me in the least. Tennessee's run defense has been great, ranked number 1 in the league, but I like Houston's defense to do most of the damage in this AFC South battle.
DETROIT -3 over Tampa Bay. Rod Marinelli has his former employer coming to town. Coming off their bye week, I've got to believe the Lions will be ready. While Jeff Garcia and Joey Galloway will connect for some solid gains, I think Jon Kitna and his group will be ready to do more damage. The Lions also get Kevin Jones back in the lineup as a starter.
New England -16.5 over MIAMI. Miami always gives the Patriots trouble, especially at home, but I just can't see it going down this year. The Pats just have too much going for them, and the Dolphins can't beat anyone. Bill Belichick will key on Ronnie Brown, and with the Chris Chambers trade going down, the Fins are without their only receiving threat. Stick with the Pats until they lose.
NEW ORLEANS -9 over Atlanta. Brees and Bush finally got it together last week, and they did it in a place that's not easy to win in, Qwest Field. I was all about the Seahawks, but New Orleans made some defensive plays early, and Bush looked like his old, versatile self. Coming home this week, they'll keep things rolling against a horrible Atlanta team that gives Byron Leftwich a shot. I like Norwood to finally take control of that backfield, and I believe he's got another home run in him this weekend.
NEW YORK -9 over San Francisco. The Giants are hot right now. Eli is playing well, as is their defense. San Francisco is looking just one morsel better than the Dolphins. All Giants are looking solid for fantasy.
Baltimore -3 over BUFFALO. The dolla' dolla' Bills y'all ain't nothing. Ray Ray and the rest of the defense will dominate.
WASHINGTON -8.5 over Arizona. Washington is catching Arizona without their Dynamic Duo at quarterback. Not that they would have dominated the 'Skins secondary, but their chances would have been better than Tim Rattay's. Washington at home should utilize Portis, Betts and Cooley, and maybe even Santana Moss.
Kansas City +2.5 over OAKLAND. Larry Johnson to get 35 carries and control the clock, while KC's underrated defense shuts down Daunte's Inferno.
CINCINNATI -6.5 over NY JETS. The Bengals have got to get it right at some point, don't they? What happened to the team that looked so great on Week 1, with the defense blitzing and making plays, forcing fumbles, etc.? Carson gets off this weekend. Chad will get back on track.
Chicago +5.5 over Philadelphia. Philly wasn't so impressive last week against the Jets that they should be giving five and the hook to the defending NFC Champs.
SEATTLE -9.5 over St. Louis. The Rams aren't going to be the Rams until Action Jackson is back. Seattle's offense should control the clock with Shaun, and the scoreboard at home this week (unlike they did last week).
Minnesota +9.5 over DALLAS. The Vikings are so one dimensional that it might actually make them two dimensional. Or something like that. Dallas is going to have to throw everybody in the box to stop All Day Peterson, and their secondary (Roy Williams) isn't good enough to shut down anybody. I like Dallas at home, the Vikings are obviously not the Pats, but this is just too much spread for me.
Pittsburgh -3.5 over DENVER. Denver hasn't stopped the run all year, they just don't have the personnel for it. Fast Willie will dominate this game, and the Blitzburgh D will be all over Cutler, who is without Javon Walker for another two weeks. I don't see Hines Ward and Co. making much noise against the Denver secondary, but if Fast Willie has a big first quarter, a Pittsburgh receiver will score on a play action pass in the second.
Indianapolis -3 over JACKSONVILLE. This should be a great Monday night game, let's get that out there. Jacksonville has found their running game, MoJo and Fred looked great last weekend. Their run defense is also top notch. And the Colts are the Colts. Everyone, save David Garrard, is worth starting this week. I need Reggie Wayne to catch two for fantasy reasons, so I'm a Colts fan this week.
