Week 5 - WHEN THOSE SAINTS COME MARCHING IN

I'm headed off to the Big Easy early tomorrow to watch the Gators vs. Tigers CFB clash so this will be an abbreviated version of my picks. I'll be drinking and watching NFL on Bourbon street on Sunday so - um, go me! Maybe, I'll catch the Saints game, maybe I'll wake up face down in the gutter - either way I win:

Last week: 5-9
Season Record: 32-29

New Orleans (-3.5) over Carolina

KC (+2.5) over JAC

DET (+3.5) over WASH

ATL over TENN. (-8)

HOU (-5) over MIAMI

SEA (+6) over PITT

NE (-16) over CLE

ARIZ (-3.5) over STL

NYG (-3.5) over NYJ

INDY (-10) over TB

BALT. (-3.5) over SF

GB (-3.5) over CHI

DALL (-10.5) over BUF

Busted Stud of the week: Frank Gore (SF)

Sneaky play of the week: Ron Dayne (HOU)

From ESPN.COM - Trade like your life depends on it people.

Don't be shy: Trade!

by Christopher Harris

Enough pixel dust has been spilled over the psychology of the fantasy trade to choke a wood nymph. So today, let's talk about the psychology of the nontrade. If you are gun-shy, if the idea of dealing a fantasy stud makes your palms sweat, if your league mates refer to you alternately as "Pat Gillick" and "Oh Don't Bother E-mailing Him," this note's for you.

Trade. It's what you play for. Fantasy sports originated because a few very sun-deprived, very biceps-challenged individuals believed they could run a sports organization better than real-life general managers. "Shake things up!" they shouted over their agate box scores, Strat-O-Matic player cards and gazpacho. "Deal that bum! Call up that kid! And for god's sake, get rid of those Burger King uniforms!" (Note: that last cry was most typically heard among fans of the early-'80s San Diego Padres.) If you're going to invest emotionally in fake sports, you might as well be a fake Jack McKeon, right?

Fantasy football, in particular, begs for the wheeler to meet the dealer. We all act as though we absolutely know what to expect in August, we draft accordingly, and then LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore and Larry Johnson proceed to play like Moe, Larry, Curly and Shemp for a month. Meanwhile, the top point-getters in ESPN.com leagues include Derek Anderson, LaMont Jordan and the Minnesota defense. Collectively, we are Schultz from "Hogan's Heroes": We know nuth-thing. And we rarely get it right the first time.

But trading affords us the opportunity to get it right the second, third or fourth time. While generally speaking, I advise against dealing players who are extremely undervalued, or buying players who've monumentally surprised, so many more deals in fantasy football wind up being good and fun and worth it, rather than scary or soul-killing. Package three guys to get a stallion. Trade your extra wide receiver for a long-shot running back. The season, like life, is short. As Magnapop once intoned: "Careful stays and careless dies. But careless is and careful tries."

The best part about this is fantasy football may be the one such game where one deal can absolutely transform your squad. I guarantee there are at least five NFL players languishing unused on fantasy rosters from sea to shining sea who will, in the next two months, wind up blowing off your league's doors, causing upsets, unsettling favorites, inducing sneers. Go find those guys. I wish I could tell you who they'll be (read my Friday column, The Breakdown, every week for my latest ideas), but the truth is: Opportunity and circumstance will dictate these studs-in-waiting, and it's awfully hard to predict either of those things. So err on the side of gluttony. Deal for several players, stock them away like so many unfermented Bordeaux, awaiting the kind of chemical reaction that produces sweet results.

Make offers. Make counteroffers. Accept offers. Deal a pleasant surprise at the height of his grandeur, and take on a former stud who'll romp again. Pry a superstar away with your depth. Confuse your loyalties with your horse-trading. Cause your league mates' eyes to roll with your audacity.

This is what fantasy sports are for. Say yes.

From the Message Board

THE MORNING AFTER PILL - WEEK 4
Here goes it….

As much as it pain all of us, I have to start with Aaron and Team "It Was An Abortion Michael Like Our Fantasy Name Which Can't Get Any Longer But Maybe It Can…" Phenomenal win. Aaron was watching the Monday Night Game in Michael Irvin's living room at the Embassy Suites. He won the week when T.J Where'smyponytail caught Palmer's last pass of the game and got 100 yards on the nose. Aaron's reaction was like he just won an award at the Technical Emmys. "I haven't won a week since the Doping Agency! High-five bro!" he exclaimed. Up goes a Dubbs pic…..Frank the Tank takes the loss. I think next week Jed should start 4 or 5 Bears. Maybe pick up Kyle Orton or Desmond Clark at 4:20 am. Jed, we have to get the Bill Walsh Trophy out of your house. It's having a kryptonite like effect on you.

Let's give some love to Team Bumps. Hell, a standing ovation or maybe the wave. He put a stealth like hit on The Shocker. It was like the scene in Goodfellas when Morrie gets the screwdriver in the back of the neck. My sources in Diego tell me that amongst the dejection of all the Charger fans in the parking lot, Bumper was seen consoling a teary-eyed child in a wheelchair. He whispered to the kid, "it's okay sport, at least the Bloody Mary Mafia is back. I was down and out too. Just like you. But then I started Daunte and everything worked out. Keep your head up." And then he gave him his Hencho hat and did the "Culpepper Roll" for him. And then took his Hencho Hat back.

I'm at a loss for words with the Shocker. Don't give up Paul. I mean look at the Phillies, the 93' Bills, John Travolta, Ashlee Simpson. Comebacks really can happen.

How about Team Hemming! Grill Slappers dropped another "Ike Turner Uppercut" this week on 3 Foot Giant. It got so bad on Sunday afternoon that Mike had to wear a mouthpiece and he put a headgear on Julian to protect him from the punches. Vicious defeat. Mike pulled out all the stops. He even called the commish after a Jamal Lewis TD and told him that he meant to put him in that morning but his computer was down. Was there anything the commish could do? (True story) Aaron didn't even answer the question, but he did ask if he had any gigs coming up.

Early on it looked like Rusty Trombone was going to break a record we all thought would stand for eternity. Least Points Scored in a Single Game, 2005 – 14.5 Napoleon's Complex. (Side note: this Rockies/Padres game is amazing. Hey Paul, add the Rockies to that comeback list) Johnny Diamond should take Rusty T to Sizzler and thank him for that win. Diamond wins again with the Griese, Leinart, Gerrard shuffle. You could drink an entire bottle of Grey Goose with a King Cobra chaser and those QB's will still be a "3" when the bar closes.

Whiskey Dick was up big early. Dan Marino thought he was going to win the week. Then Mick looked at the logo and he was done. Guy unleashed the girl from the well and she bit Mick's head off. If you play Guy, tape a small piece of dark paper where his logo will be on your computer. It's your only chance.

You remember that scene in Mystic River that won Sean Penn the Oscar? He just found out his daughter was dead and it took an entire precinct to hold him back. Sunday – Greg – Chargers. But Team Motorboat is firing on all cylinders. Like a 67' Margaux, or the 60' Aston Martin Zagato or even the 72' Dolphins. Could this be the first team in history to go undefeated? Greg should enter this team in the $100,000 Fantasy Challenge in Vegas. Or maybe Greg should just take Irvin to Sizzler because that team is "a bum asking for change in the middle of an intersection". Sign says: Taking it in every hole – real hard. Will work for a Wide Receiver.

(Cue theme song from Hoosiers)

All I got is this blog men. My team is doo-doo. Michael Irvin is a one-hit wonder, a flash in the pan. I am the Faster Pussycat, the Faith No More, the Jimmy Eat World of our league. But I will never stop fighting, never stop battling. I will watch every game, I will scrap the bottom of every waiver wire looking for kickers, I will offer outlandish trades, I will change my logo every week, I will live on the block, I will post ridiculous polls, I will tell people at parties that our league is the best league, because fantasy makes reality easier men! Hollywood Packers! Grrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!

Draft Do-Over

This has been a crazy year for sure. If you followed conventional fantasy wisdom and drafted one of the big 4 (LT, Gore, LJ, S. Jackson) with your top four pick you might very well be looking at a 0-4 record going into week 5. You are correct to panic but don't feel alone. Here are 2007's top 5 at the key positions to date using standard Yahoo scoring:

RB
1. Ronnie Brown
2. Joseph Addai
3. Marion Barber III
4. Brian Westbrook
5. LT

Comments: Look for these numbers to even out by the midway point of the season with LT and LJ filtering back up to the top of the RB ranks. S. Jackson bust year will continue in a big way.

WR
1. Randy Moss
2. Plaxico Burress
3. Housh
4. Chad Johnson
5. Steve Smith

Through one quarter of the NFL schedule, the receivers have proven to be more consistent in many cases then the top RBs that went rounds earlier. The name guys that everyone expected to perform have done their jobs. Look for Randy Moss to continue his insane season. Currently on a pace to catch 28 TDs, Randy is this year's LT (circa 2006) caliber stud.

QB
1. Tony Romo
2. Tom Brady
3. Carson Palmer
4. Peyton Manning
5. Brett Favre

I have Tony Romo on three of my four teams and I'd like to say I predicted this kind of success, but that would be a lie. Tom Brady and the Patriots will continue to get all the press since he wins Super Bowls and has sex with super models but Tony Romo came out of nowhere to lead his Cowboys to an undefeated first quarter of the season. This list of players further demonstrates why it is never a good idea to use an early pick on a QB. Obviously you are doing fine with Peyton on your squad but you overpaid for him and missed out on a good RB or WR. Worst case, you nabbed Drew Brees early. All I can say is hopefully the waiver wire is kind to you.

Defense: (in a league where kick return TDs count)
1. Minnesota
2. Chicago
3. Detroit
4. Pittsburgh
5. New England

These lists will change significantly between now the end of the season but you should just realize there was no way you could of foreseen these ridiculous results from the early NFL season. With a few savvy trades, some waiver wire vigilance and a strong stomach you can claw your way back. Just keep after it.