Week 2 Picks (This week's theme, It's only cheating if they catch you)

"I think this guy just stole my wallet!" Eric Mangini - Head Coach, NY Jets
(winners ATS in red)

Week One record - 11-4-1

Buffalo @ Pittsburgh (-9)
No huddle spread attack - check, lighting fast running back - check, QB fresh off a 4 td game - check, best DB and linebacker that should be stopping the aforementioned offensive players in new NFL cities as a result of free agency - check. Nate Clements and Takeo Spikes probably wouldn't make that much of a difference. The Steelers will win easily but the Bills will score some points in the 4th to make it look closer then it really was. Lee Evans will be thrilled Champ Bailey is back in Denver and that the Steeler corners can't stay with him. (I guess X-body was right about something for once). Big Ben will come back down to earth with a good not great game since they will not need the pass to take the Bills out.
Start: Willie Parker, Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch / Sit: Buffalo DST

Cincinnati (-7) @ Cleveland
The worst QB in the league against an opportunistic defense playing catchup with a team possessing one of the top three offenses in the league. Yeah, this one will be over quicker than Ed Hochuli can dead lift a metric ton. Keep in mind the Bengals scored 30-plus in both meetings a year ago and have won five straight in the series.
Start: Carson, Chad, TJ, Cincy DST, The Soldier / Sit: Everyone else who thinks some drunken, shirtless fat factory worker with a bone around his neck barking at you is actually cheering for you

Indy (-7) @ Tenn
Indy has gone down in their last 3 road games against division opponents and last week Tenn demonstrated a style of play you can expect from them all year by carving up a very good run defense in Jacksonville in route to an upset victory. Tenn will play Vince ball which is ball control, run-centric play calling punctuated by opportunistic defense. None of this will help your fantasy squad but it does win games in the real world. Jeff Fisher is a genius. I bet he cheats. I also wonder if this former Colt's cb (Nick Harper) will fare better than Jason David did last week for the Colts. I think he will.
Start: Chris Brown, Marvin Harrison / Sit: Vince Young

Houston @ Carolina (-6.5)
Carolina will roll in this match up. Steve Smith will make someone miss on a quick hitch and take it to the house opening the flood gates. I generally like Schuab but he will look more like Joey Harrington than Joey Montana against tight corner coverage. Julius Peppers is the best defensive end in the league and he will wreak havoc like you would expect once the Panthers silence the Houston run game and make the Texans one dimensional.
Start: Steve Smith, Delomme / Sit: A. Johnson and M. Schuab

SF @ STL (-3)
Gore's mother just died this week so his head may not be in the game (assuming he plays as planned) but it probably will not matter. Assuming they are all in the building, Alex Smith, D-Jack, Click-Clack and Gore will shred the hapless Ram D. Nate Clements and my sleeper D of the year who stymied the Cardinal's great receivers will blanket the gimpy Torry Holt and frustrate Bulger into mediocre numbers. Steven Jackson will get a face mask full of Patrick Willis all afternoon as the rookie makes things rough for everyone's favorite former Beaver. Pace (who is out for the year) is not irreplaceable but he will be missed. (late breaking news) T. Hill the Ram's starting CB will also miss the game with a back injury further depleting an already weak St. Louis D.
Start: Gore, Vernon Davis, D - Jack / Sit: Holt, Bulger

GB @ NYG (-1)
The old gunslinger has a few bullets left in the gun. The same secondary that made life easy for Tony Romo last week will bend to the will of the man with the funny last name. Favre will feature Driver all over the field including the end zone and Jennings will take a short pass to the house assuming he is healthy. D. Ward will run 'cause that's all they got. Greenbay's under rated D will feast on the Hefty Lefty if he starts in place of an injured Eli. My hunch is he will and all the talk of Eli suiting up and playing is just gamesmanship by the Giants. If GB is going to contend for the division this is a game they have to win against a depleted NFC foe.
Start: Favre, Driver, D. Ward / Sit: Plaxico, Shockey

Atlanta @ Jacksonville (-10)
I freely admit I harbor a Ford Field sized grudge against Joey Harrington. He will go down and go down hard this week but not before the Jag's D can redeem themselves by taking at least one of his passes the other way for 6. You have to assume Jacksonville will commit themselves to re-establishing the run. Look for MJD to have his first of many good performances this year in a Jacksonville route.
Start: MJD, Fred Taylor, Jag's DST / Sit: all the dirty birds

NO (-4) @ TB
Everyone assumed the Saint's offense would pick up where they left off last year. This is the week where it happens. Galloway might try to do his best Reggie Wayne impersonation but with the Caddy in the shop, Sean Peyton's offense will carry the day.
Start: Colston, Brees, Galloway / Sit: Garcia, Buc's DST

MINN @ DET (-3)
Detroit is facing one of the stonger run Ds in the league. Good thing the Lions don't concern themselves with little things like running the football. Minny will double Roy "THE TOY" Williams all over the field and probably try to single cover 6'5" monster Calvin "Megatron" Johnson with 5'9" Antoine Winfield. Expect the Vikings to blitz the Lions heavily and pay a price for doing it as that is exactly what the Greatest Show on Turf Redux wants the defense to do. Also, with TJ out this week you might see a glimpse of the Lion's future starter at RB, Kevin Jones to prepare him to play significant snaps next week in his hometown, Philly or in two weeks against division arch-rival Chicago. He has reportedly looked great in practice all week. Adrian Peterson will continue his strong running with over 100 yards and 2 TDs but Tavaris Jackson will have a rough time of it playing catch-up all day long.
Start: Kitna, Calvin, Detroit DST (yeah I said it) / Sit: Tatum Bell, Tavaris Jackson

Dallas (-4) @ Miami
Tony Romo will continue his hot play against a depleted Miami secondary with 300/3. Miami doesn't have the talent at the skill positions to take advantage of the shoddy Dallas secondary that Eli and Plaxico torched for 3 TDs last week.
Start: Romo, TO, P. Crayton / Sit: Ronnie Brown

Seattle (-3) @ Arizona
The Cardinals will slow Alexander like they did Gore last week. Watch for Leinart to rebound with a big game to one of his two stud WRs off play action. Also, look for Edge to continue his strong running with over 100 yards.
Start: Edge, Leinart, Fitz / Sit: Hasselback, Seattle DST

NYJ @ Balt. (-10)
In the battle of backup QBs, the team with the best defense will win. Kellen will make it closer then you would expect and the Jet's D will be happy to play someone in an honest game picking Boller more than once.
Start: Balt. DST, Jericho, Todd Heap / Sit: Both QBs

Oakland (-10) @ Denver
Travis Henry and Lamont Jordan will both be featured running and catching the football as these two bitter division rivals play a closer game then people expect. Culpepper will buy time with his legs and keep drives alive with dump downs to Lamont and timely passing to Jerry Porter (or whoever the guy Champ is not covering is). T. Henry will be effective on the perimeter and between the tackles all day long.
Start: Lamont Jordan, T. Henry / Sit: Jay Cutler, Javon Walker

KC @ Chicago (-12)
This one has blood bath written all over it. A team that struggled to put 3 points up on Houston last week will turn the ball over and fall behind quickly. Look for Grossman, Benson and Berrian to be featured all day. They will feed Larry Johnson early but the score will dictate a shift to the passing game by the second quarter. Look for at least one Bear's DST score.
Start: All Bears / Sit: All Chiefs including Larry Johnson

SD @ NE (-3.5)
Everyone will be talking about Belichick and his cheating but the real story in this one will be revenge for last year's playoff loss. Brady and Co. can try to max protect like they did against the Jets but the SD pass rush will get to the QB just like he did in last's year's playoff match up. The Pats will miss their safety Rodney Harrison against the Charger's run game more then they expect. Watch LT go over 100 and score twice. The Charger D will shut down the Patriot run game and make them one-dimensional just like they did against the Bear's last week. Randy, Tom, you guys might want to shorten up those patterns this week. Also, Mr. Watson will be targeted short more as a result of the defensive pressure.
Start: LT, Gates, SD DST, Ben Watson / Sit: Maroney

Washington @ Philly (-7)
Philly will rebound on Monday night at home in a big way looking much better then they did on the road against the Packers last week. Mc-nasty will connect at least once with Curtis on the same long pass play which he just missed last week. Philly has been vulnerable on the ground in years past so look for Washington to try to establish the one-two RB punch early and often. Clinton Portis will take a bigger share of the carries in the offense this week and with one of the top Philly DBs (Lito Shepard) out, look for Santana Moss to get lose for one of his patented long TDs. Cooley's numbers will suffer until the team gets the RT spot squared away after losing John Jansen for the year to a dislocated ankle as he will be asked to expand his blocking role at the expense of his pass catching. The Skins will keep the game tight but eventually fall short.
Start: Curtis, Westbrook, Portis, Moss / Sit: Cooley

Sneaky Play of the week: Patrick Crayton @ MIA - filling in for Terry Glen, Partick Crayton will help Romo pick on the depleted Miami secondary

Busted stud of the week: Tom Brady vs. SD - Please don't hurt him Shawne, he's got a few new mouths to feed.

Week 2 Picks

We've got one in the bag, and we're already moving into Week 2. The playoffs will be here before you know it. Last week I went 7-6-3, giving myself a 'push' for telling you not to bet the Bears/Chargers game. That was a cop out on my part. It won't happen again.

CAROLINA -6.5 over Houston. I'm telling you, no one is talking about Carolina this year, after they were hyped up beyond belief last year. I think they will win the NFC South over the Saints, and I think they're going to the Super Bowl. Houston could have beaten KC by 50 last week, and I'd still be taking the Panthers at home.

JACKSONVILLE -10 over Atlanta. Atlanta looked horrible last week. Horrible. And that was in a familiar dome setting. I have a feeling the Florida humidity is really gonna mess with visiting teams this week...

TENNESSEE +7 over Indianapolis. They lost by one last year in their first match up, at Indy, and then beat the Colts at home later in the season. Jeff Fisher is a great coach, and far too often it goes unnoticed because his talent is mediocre. If Bill Polian was his GM and President, he'd have multiple rings.

ST.LOUIS -3 over San Francisco. With Orlando Pace out for the Rams, it's hard to see them being the dominant offense they could be. However, at home in the Dome, I still think the team can regroup from last week's loss to Carolina, and take care of business against the 49ers.

Green Bay (pick 'em) over NY GIANTS. The Green Bay defense was impressive last week, and I'm going to assume Eli will not be operating at 100%, if at all. Tony Romo and company torched the Giants' secondary last weekend, and I expect to Brett Favre to have similar, but not equivalent, success, especially since the Giants pass rush is weakened with the loss of Osi Umenyiora.

Buffalo (+9.5) over PITTSBURGH. This should be a Steelers win, but 9.5 is a lot of points to be getting if you're Buffalo, especially after just a last second loss to a solid Denver team.

Cincinnati (-6.5) over CLEVELAND. Cleveland's quarterback situation is as bad as it gets. Romeo should have just taken my advice and started Brady Quinn all along. Eh, you live and you learn, Romeo, you live and you learn.

New Orleans -3.5 over TAMPA BAY. Sean Payton is pissed, and he'll have an offensive game plan to crush the Bucs, although I wouldn't be surprised if this one is close in the end. There's something to playing in the Florida weather during football season that just kills visitors.

DETROIT -3 over Minnesota. Is there anything worse than watching NFC North Divisional games? I'm taking the home team in this one.

Dallas -3.5 over MIAMI. This was gonna be my upset of the week. This is the game I thought would really be affected by the humidity. This was gonna be the game that won me bragging rights over Davecat this week. It was gonna be. Then, my girlfriend, a Dallas fan, said to me: "if you love me, you'll pick Dallas." Ok, sweet pants.

Seattle -3 over ARIZONA. Arizona seemed pretty willing to give up the game last week to San Francisco, so I'm going to assume they'll do the same this week, against a stronger Seahawks team.

BALTIMORE -10 over NY Jets. When Baltimore loses to a division rival on Monday Night Football, I pity the fool who plays them next.

CHICAGO -12 over Kansas City. It's so brutal knowing your number one fantasy back is going to suck this week. If Houston could beat up on KC, then Chicago sure as hell can.

DENVER -10 over Oakland. Daunte Culpepper takes the helm and we're quickly reminded (again) that he was good when he was blessed with Chris Carter and Randy Moss (and a healthy knee). Now, not so much.

San Diego +3.5 over NEW ENGLAND. Can this be the Super Bowl, please? So many great stories surrounding this game. Obviously, you've got Bill Belichick and the cheating. You've got the revenge factor for the Chargers, who lost last year in the playoffs, at home. LT talking trash about Belichick and the Pats, how they didn't have any class or respect, etc. San Diego should cover, New England will win.

Washington +6.5 over PHILADELPHIA. McNasty isn't all there with the knee yet. Washington's defense is better than they were last year, and will come after McNabb. And between Portis and Betts, the 'Skins should be able to control some clock on the road.

Don't outsmart yourself

It happens every year to the most seasoned fantasy ballers. You fall in love with your players. You memorize their numbers, their favorite colors and whether or not they salt their popcorn at the movies. Everyone walks away from their draft positive they have what it takes to go all the way. Then the long wait comes. Depending on how early your draft is you sit and you wait and you pray for no training camp injuries.

Week one hits with the force of LT on Joe Theisman's leg.

You take it all in whether it is sitting through each game or just catching the highlights on ESPN. If you are like a large group of FFballers you experience at least a touch of a disorder I like to call "Bust-a-phobia".

You are 0-1 and freaking out. It turns out your blue-chip running back didn't turn in the 200 & 2 performance you were counting on. He didn't even sniff the goal line. Or worse, some pencil neck cheating coach from a certain northeastern city pulls him around the goal line and gives his touchdown to some scrub white guy fullback type (And no, I'm not bitter!!!).

You do what any self-respecting general manager does, you race to the computer and immediately start concocting elaborate trade offers for your fellow managers to salvage some value from your failed pick or better yet, you start trolling the waiver wire for one or more week 1 wonders.

To borrow a line from a recent NFL FFB commercial - I NEED YOU HERE!!!. Step away from the computer and turn off NFL network. Don't do something you WILL regret later. Everyone knows you buy low and sell high and this is not the time to make any rash decisions. Before you trade away Stephen Jackson or Rudi Johnson (or Cedric Benson) take a look at the following week 1 stats from 2006.

RB - Larry Johnson (KC) - vs. CIN - 17 ATT / 68 Yds / 0 TDs

WR - Chad Johnson (CIN) - vs. KC - 5 REC / 48 Yds / 0 TDs

QB - P. Manning (IND) - vs. NYG - 276 Yds / 1TD / 1INT

We all know how those guy's seasons turned out so there you have it. Now am I saying don't make any deals no matter what???......absolutely not. In fact, I traded my man crush Laurence Maroney in one of my money leagues for the stud receiver that just might round out a championship squad. Just know you need to be patient and smart. This thing is a marathon not a sprint and unless you are managing against Belichick and have to worry about his cheating ways, the cool, calm and collected manager who can resist the fire sale mentality will do well for him or herself.

20 Q's from the weekend

1. Whose performance was worse: Britney's at the VMA's or the Giants' secondary?
1a. How much Xanax does it take to it take to ruin your 'comeback'?

2. How many Directv employees does it take to activate programming on your second tv so that you can enjoy your $250 NFL Ticket package on multiple televisions? I can tell you this: six wasn't enough. Really, I spent the entire first half of the 10am games on the phone and I was really about to flip out. (clip note: I love that Jason Schwartzman never takes his feet off the desk, just chilling, and then when you think it's over...BAM, the director comes blasting through the door)

3. Davecat, are you sure you wanna call him 'Chump' Bailey? Lee Evans caught two balls for 5 yards. Champ may be the only true 'shutdown corner' left.

4. Did I say Green Bay's defense was mediocre but improving? I meant to say they were much improved. Error in dictation. I've since fired that idiot secretary.

5. Did you see Terrell Owens' catch?

6. What about Adrian Peterson's?

7. Have you ever wondered how ESPN's John Clayton is so knowledgeable about the game? It's all making sense now...

8. Is New England's offensive line that good, or is the Jets' pass rush that bad? Either way, Tom Brady looked unbelievable.

9. Is it possible that Chicago's defense is better this year than last? To hell with the loss, on the road, against San Diego, Chicago will be playing in the NFC Championship.

10. What do I do about Larry Johnson? What the hell is Herm Edwards thinking by sticking to his word of letting Johnson 'get his legs under him'. He's all you got, Herm, use him. Let him break his damn rushing attempt record, what else are you gonna do?

11. Sampras or Federer? I'm not a big tennis guy by any means, but every time I watch the Grand Slam finals, Federer is playing, and it never looks like he's even trying.

12. What happened to Reggie Bush? I believe he'll rebound, but was it me or was he cutting back into the defense, instead of outrunning them to the sideline? Reggie, newsflash: you're faster than anyone in pads.

13. Manning or Brady? Does it even matter? Either one will take you to the promised land.

14. It may be a bit early, but didn't I tell you to beware with Cedric Benson?

15. And didn't both Davecat and I tell you Big Ben would be a stud?

16. Has the Patriots' success come through cheating, or is this an isolated incident?

17. When will JaMarcus Russell have an impact in the NFL, or will he ever?

18. Just what the hell is Kanye West so pissed about?

19. This doesn't apply to me, but Davecat, you know something about this, don't you?

20. What happened to my boy, Chad Johnson? What a letdown.