Week 4 - Almost the quarter-way point

Last week: 8-8
Season Record: 27-20

MINNESOTA over Green Bay (-1.5). Minny's D is the best fantasy D in the league bar none. Greenbay and Brett Favre like to start fast but usually flame out. I'm not predicting GB's demise yet, I just don't think this is their week. The Minny fill-in QB will be a passing improvement over Tavaris Jackson and A. Peterson will run wild. He is the next great running back in the game.
Start: Peterson, Minny D / Sit Favre, Any GB running back

Houston over ATLANTA (+3) Joey will nail a few more nails into his career coffin with a sub-par outing against a surprisingly good Houston D. As a Lion's fan I feel comfortable guaranteeing a sub-par outing after a decent outing last week.
Start: Dayne, Roddy White / Sit: Joey

New York Jets over BUFFALO (+3.5). Buffalo will trot out a rookie in Trent Edwards. Look for T. Jones to carry the load in a slug fest between wretched teams.
Start: T. Jones, L. Coles, M. Lynch / Sit: Lee Evans

Baltimore (-4) over CLEVELAND. For all the progress and life the Browns have shown on offense with their outburst vs. Cincy and the emergence of Braylon and Soldier their defense will ultimatly be their undoing. Jamal will not get revenge this day as the Baltimore front will shut him down. Braylon will get behind Corey Ivy and company at least once for a long touchdown.
Start: Mcgahee, Mason, Braylon / Sit: J. Lewis

DALLAS (-13) over St. Louis. The only thing that will get in Romo's way will be the fact this Ram's D is so leaky on the ground their be no need to pass. That said, I think TO will still come out of this one with over 100 yards and a TD.
Start: TO, Barber/ Sit: Bulger

DETROIT (+3) over Chicago. The Bear's D is hurting but the Lion's is as well and they don't have all the injuries to use as an excuse. Last week's defensive lapses at Philly are all the more disheartening for the Lion's faithful because the cover-2 is supposed to be a D that limits the "Explosive Play" (i.e. plays from scrimmage whether they be via pass or run that amount to a 20 or more yard gain) by keeping everything "in front of the D". Both the Vikings and the Eagles went max-protect and ran 2 man patterns where their speed receivers ran right by the Lion's deep safteys. I see no reason Berrian will not do the same. The Lion's O will have a softer matchup than most expect but they will have to avoid falling behind by a lot since this group (as injured as they are) are disciplined and well coached.
Start: Griese, Berrian, Kevin Jones, Roy Williams, Jon Kitna / Sit:Bear's DST, Cedric Benson

MIAMI (-4) over Oakland. Lamont Jordan is living up to all the hype he has.....last year. He may be a season last but owners should expect him to continue his torrid rushing pace this week against a Miami D that hasn't been that special. The Oakland D was billed as a great pass D last year but they've shown themselves to be vulnerable. Watch for Chris Chambers to do his normal damage and help Miami pull this one out.
Start: Chambers, Ronnie Brown, Jordan / Sit: Ronald Curry, Culpepper

SAN FRANCISCO over Seattle (-2). Seattle doesn't stop the run particularly well and Gore is all SF has in its arsenal. They are going to saddle him up and ride him to victory.
Start: Hasselbeck, Gore, Branch / Sit: Alexander

Tampa Bay (+3) over CAROLINA. Outside of Minny, TB is my surprise fantasy defense. Most "experts" branded them too old but Brian Kelly and Ronde Barber has been able to hold it down on the outside in the Tampa-2 while Cato June, rookie DE Gaines Adams and 10,000 year vet Derrick Brooks are keeping other team's run games at bay. Carolina has David Carr throwing to S. Smith which is akin to putting Corolla tires on your Ferrari (sorry X-body).
Start: Tampa DST, Carnell Williams, Joey Galloway, D. Forster / Sit: D. Williams

ARIZONA (+6) over Pittsburgh . The move to play Warner probably came as a bit of a surprise to Baltimore last week. Obviously Pitt has a week to prepare for that change. What they will not be ready for is the Arizona heat. Veteran QB play, ultra-talented wide receivers and the hot Arizona sun at 1pm in the afternoon will combine to force the upset of the week. Look for Edge to be shut down for the most part and Card's safety Adrian Wilson to neutralize Fast Willie by becoming a permanent fixture down in the box.
Start: Boldin, Fitz, S. Holmes / Sit: Edge, Leinart

SAN DIEGO (-11.5) over Kansas City . This game will come down to who has the better passing attack as both side's once dominant run games have sputtered. Bank on the talented Charger's skill position players to make the passing game go.
Start: LT, Gates, Rivers / Sit: LJ, Huard, Bowe

Denver over INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) . Denver touts their pass D as unbeatable and opponents usually head the warning and stick to the ground game. Ranked 27th in rush D as of last week, Denver's almost inviting teams to take that course of action. Peyton Manning and the boys are one of the few teams that will seldom let the defense dictate their style of offensive play. This week the Bronco's superior secondary play will dictate the Colts take a more measured offensive approach centered on the running of Joseph Addai and underneath routes to Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark. If the Colt's rookie left tackle is out with an ankle injury, a close game could turn into a major upset. Brandon Marshall will further assert himself as one of the better young WRs in the league. Think a mix between Larry Fitzgerald and A. Boldin. Grab him now if you are in a keeper league.
Start: Dallas Clark, Addai, Brandon Marshall / Sit: Harrison, Wayne

Philadelphia (-3) over NY GIANTS. I like Westbrook to repeat his performance from last week.
Start: Westbrook, McNabb, Ward Sit: Curtis

New England (-7) over Cincinnati. Does anyone in the world thing the Bengals have a shot? I sure don't. If NE has any kind of weakness (is said IF), it has to be in the secondary without Harrison in. We know NE will jump all over a poor Cincy D causing Carson and the boys to pass to catch up. He will get sacked all day long. It will get ugly. I promise.
Start: Moss, Brady, Maroney, Housh Sit: Carson, Cincy DST (duh!)

Busted Stud of the week: Peyton Manning- In years past the Colts have picked on the corner back opposite Champ Bailey with great results. This year look for Bailey to match-up on Wayne and Dre Bly to match up on Harrison. Manning will not be shut out but he will be forced to rely on Addai and the underneath routes to move the ball. The Colts can still be productive since the Bronco pass rush is sub-par but Manning's numbers will suffer.

Sneaky play of the week: Dallas Clark - Peyton will find someone open and Dre and Champ can't cover everyone.

Week 4 Picks (Weak 3 Results)

You're just going to have to trust me that I went 5-8-3 last week in my Yahoo! Pick 'em league against the spread.

On to Week 4.

Green Bay (-1.5) over MINNESOTA. Both teams have solid defenses, but I like Brett Favre and company to make a few more plays in this one.

ATLANTA (+3) over Houston. Andre Johnson and Ahman Green are out, so this seems like the best chance Atlanta is going to get to win a game.

BUFFALO (+3.5) over New York Jets. Two of the 'other' teams in the AFC East square off in Buffalo. Why not take the home team, who is getting points? Probably because their QB is out and their defense has been horrible, but what the hell!

Baltimore (-4) over CLEVELAND. Just too much Baltimore defense in this one.

DALLAS (-13) over St. Louis. I'm a firm believer in never taking a team giving this many points, but St. Louis looks horrible this year, especially without Orlando Pace, and now Steven Jackson. They've got no defense whatsoever, Romo and the 'Boys should put it to them.

DETROIT (+3) over Chicago. The Bears are a little banged up on defense and Brian Griese is about to start his first game since leaving Michigan. Not really, but this guy must be rusty, he's been dropped by three teams for chrissakes. I like Marz to spread it out and air it out; I'm taking the points at home.

MIAMI (-4) over Oakland. Ronnie Brown finally came alive last week, and I think he can continue some of that productivity this week at home. And with any luck, the 'Phins fans won't greet Daunte Culpepper too cordially.

Seattle (-2) over SAN FRANCISCO. San Francisco can't throw the ball. Like, at all. They're nearly as bad Kansas City.

Tampa Bay (+3) over CAROLINA. The Panthers are without their starting QB. That's my reasoning. I bet this game is a push anyways.

ARIZONA (+6) over Pittsburgh. Six points seems like a lot to me for a team that just it took Baltimore's defense on the road. I like Edge and the dynamic duo at receiver to have solid outings and cover this hefty spread at home.

SAN DIEGO (-11.5) over Kansas City. Two road losses in a row has the whole league wondering what's up with the Chargers. Even LT has come out and said he's not happy, and that something must be done. I'll be at this game on Sunday, and I expect the Chargers' fans will be showing their 'Bolt Pride' to the fullest.

INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) over Denver. Indy always seems to make Denver look just straight up silly in the RCA Dome. Plus, Denver is two last second field goals away from being 0-3. They're overrated. San Diego will still win that division.

Philadelphia (-3) over NY GIANTS. As long as Westbrook is able to play, the Eagles should take this one with superior defense.

New England (-7) over Cincinnati. I've got to see the Pats lose before I bet against them.

From the Message Board

I thought we should start a new segment called 'From the Message Board'. This one's pretty simple: we're going to take the best posts from our Fantasy League Message Boards and throw them up for your entertainment.

TOO BIG FOR YOUR BRITCHES....

Dear Bumbling Irishman,

Morning Nurse Harty. Pretty high after that victory, huh? You’re like the guy who dances like a fool when he hits the house, and I’m the guy that’s been there so many times that I just keep chugging along. Go ‘head and gloat though. I know it won’t happen often for you. The sun shines on your ass for once, and you go and get all mouthy. Typical. Does the #1 team in the league really need your Start ‘Em and Sit ‘Em Class? I don’t think so. We don’t take the advice of LOSERS.
I don’t need to hear from you who should be in my starting lineup. I hear directly from my players. I just got off the phone with Warrick Dunn. He expressed his disappointment in me. I could do nothing but apologize to the man. But I let him know a few things so he could understand where I was coming from regarding my decision to bench him. #1. He had only one TD this year, a 90 yard jaunt. #2. In his last 38 red zone appearances, he hadn’t scored once. Not once. #3. Blittsburgh’s defense is always strong against the run, giving up only 3 rushing TD’s all year. #4. Buffalo’s D has given up twice as many rushing TD’s, and gives up, on average, 40 more yards a game. Hence, Maroney got the nod.
Now, I don’t think I need to tell you that I can’t start 5 RB’s. You may think I’m getting away with that based on not only my record, but the points I’m putting up per game. It’s not the case though, Nurse. I can only start 3 myself. Barlow and Mo Jones-Drew are going to put up some points from time to time. More power to ‘em. They want in the lineup. There’s still a chance for them. We’ll see. You like that Dallas Clark waiver wire pickup? Little page out of your own book, huh Nursey-poo? What about Denver’s DST? You like that? Grabbed them off their bye week and they’ve gone for 16, 16 and 17 points in the last 3 games.
Oh, and despite your criticism, I won ANOTHER FUCKING GAME, and I am STILL tops in the league. Larry Johnson a fantasy bust? Are you fucking serious? You are the biggest joke in the league, and I think you’ve gotten a little big for your britches….

10 Questions from the Weekend

10. Are the Green Bay Packers for real? Brett Favre just led a comeback against the Chargers, and tied Dan Marino's record for most touchdown passes, at 420. Looks like he's still got something left in the tank.

9. Is there a better NFL environment than Lambeau Field? A homage to Bill Simmons, originator of the 'Running Diary'.

8. Honestly, what did Roger Goodell think he was going to find with the Patriots' tapes?

7. Who are second and third, respectively, in rushing yards for the NFL right now? Lamont Jordan and Jamal Lewis. Who would have guessed...

6. Can he keep up this pace? Big talker Chad Johnson is averaging 147.33 receiving yards per game thus far. Projected over the entire season, that would be 2,357 yards.

5. Can he? Randy Moss, averaging 134.33, would top out at 2,149.33 yards.

4. Do you remember when I said that Rex Grossman should be benched? Well it's about that time...

3. After Sunday night, is there any doubt that Dallas is the team to beat in the NFC? And is there anyone that can beat the Patriots in the AFC (remember, they're playing without Richard Seymour or Rodney Harrison)?

2. From NFC Championship to an 0-3 start. Can the New Orleans Saints salvage their season without workhorse Deuce McAllister? Even with Deuce, what's wrong with Drew Brees?

1. Did you see the Family Guy Star Wars tribute? Instant classic.