2007 Breakout Players

It happens every year. Someone comes out of nowhere to catch fantasy football fire. You can do all the research in the world but until the real bullets start flying, there is no way to know which soldier (sorry K2) is going to win the war.

Last year it was an unknown 7th round WR from Hofstra named Marques Colston. By virtue of a system miscalculation, Yahoo league players could play MC at either WR or TE. This started out as a cute loophole that some people desperate for a viable weekly play at TE took advantage of. They ended up with the best rookie receiver (70/1038/8) on one of the best offenses in the league racking up points as a tight end.

On the RB end of things, a short, stocky all purpose guy from UCLA ended up energizing the Jacksonville ground game to the tune of 1377 total yards and 15 total TDs. At 5'7" and 212 pounds not many people outside Jacksonville, Florida gave him a second thought.

Short of learning how to read minds or predict the future we are going to have to go with our best educated guess. This post will go over the guys at each position you absolutely need to target during the second half of your draft. You will thank me later, I promise.

1. QB: As positions in the NFL go, quarterbacks are as cerebral as they come. Even Vick and Young need to go through a series of pre-play and play reads that determine if they hang in the pocket and methodically move through their progressions or free lance out on the perimeter of the defense. Beyond smarts and instinct, QBs need awareness. This is the amorphous attribute that usually proves to be a throwaway in video games when you are tasked with creating a player. What is awareness in the football sense? I don't know but I know who has it. Tom Brady has the greatest awareness level of any modern QB. Total command of the offense and an understanding of what he is being tasked to do. Another necessary element is arm strength. Don't confuse this with a chiseled physique. A strong armed QB that currently plays backup for the Giants bears the nickname "The Hefty Lefty." Apparently a big gut doesn't preclude you from becoming an NFL QB that can make all the throws. The final piece to the puzzle is consistency. This is a what makes a superstar. Go ahead and have only one great year and people will quickly forget about you. The 2007 Breakout QB will be Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh's new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians promises to bring a more wide open attack to the Steelers this year. His new approach will almost certainly lead to less defenders in the box. This move makes sense given the rise of Willie Parker and his slashing style which is in stark contrast to past smash mouth runners like Jerome Bettis. An improved aerial attack combined with more effective running from "Fast Willie" can only help Big Ben regain his form after an injury riddled 2006 season. He was a dominate passer in college and helped to lead the Steelers to a Super Bowl. Give him a mulligan for last year due to injuries and don't think twice about grabbing him when he drops to the 8th round or later. He will pass for 3500+ yards and at least 25 TDs and you will keep your early round picks to spend on stud runners and receivers like god intended. Of course, all bets are off if Yahoo somehow classifies Vince Young as a QB/RB. Stranger things have happened, right?
2. RB: My favorite breakout RB candidate not named Cedric will be scoring TDs over Jimmy Hoffa's final resting place. Brandon Jacobs, a 265 pound 6'4" freak of nature with sprinter's speed playing RB will add carries between the 20s to his already impressive goal line repertoire. The only knock against him is his upright running style which some worry may lead to injuries. While this is a valid concern, its nothing a good old fashioned "hand-cuffing" to Reuben Droughns will not fix. I suspect he will fall in redraft leagues all the way to the 3rd or 4th round. While other managers are picking their receivers, do yourself a favor and stock up your RB roster with this monster. Worst case, at least you know he will get the goal line carries.
   
3. WR: Wide receiver is all about touches. A viable fantasy receiver has to get the ball in his hands and take advantage of those chances when they come. Much in the same way Colston has Reggie Bush to alter coverages, Braylon Edwards of the Browns has Kellen Winslow to draw away defensive attention. Expect defenses to react to last year's 89 catch season by the loquacious tight end and free up Braylon to use his superior speed, strong frame and leaping ability to dominate. You can count on solid WR2 numbers from this late round gem likely to go anywhere from the 7th round on.
   
4. TE: For a while it was Gonzo and A. Gates but now Antonio is all alone as the creme de la creme of fantasy tight ends. He promises to be even better this year with veteran wide receiver Eric Parker set to miss up to 10 weeks with an injured foot. The real questions are 1) Do you really want to spend a 3rd round pick on a TE? And 2) Who will carry the banner in the future? The future is now and I have two words for you - CLICK - CLACK. Provided Vernon Davis doesn't overdose on EAS nutritional supplements, he should break onto the scene this year as the new Antonio. The fastest tight end ever to run the 40 yd dash at the NFL scouting combine, things are setting up for Vernon's career to unfold in a similar way to AG's. Think about the similarities: 1) A warm weather team (good for passing) 2) a run based offense to draw defensive attention and set up play action passes 3) A young talented offensive line 4) a solid athletic quarterback who is dying to develop a go-to receiver and willing to rely on the short high percentage dump-off to a back or end 5) unremarkable receivers who couldn't beat Vernon in a footrace if he spotted them 10 yards. Look for this star in the making around the 10th round smack dab in the middle of the group of TE's that always get picked after Gates, Gonzo and Heap go off the board.
5. DST: Which defense faces no fewer than 5 first year QBs, plays only a handful of legitimate offensive teams this year as part of a last place schedule, was ranked 4th in total defense in 2006 per NFL.com and has added a pro bowl pass rusher and college all american kick returner to the roster? If you guessed the Dolphins, congrats. Expect this hidden gem to last long into the late rounds. A new proven veteran QB (no more Joey!!!), a solid run game and a new head coach whose brand of ball control offense hid a defficent secondary in San Diego can only help. This squad will rack up sacks, turnovers and return touchdowns almost like the Bear's D of 2006 at a fraction of the cost.