Thursday, August 23, 2007

Why my team will win your league, Davecat.



I thought I'd breakdown my draft a bit for Davecat, so he can understand the mental approach it takes to come out on top on draft day. Although the rules of your league are standard enough, I cannot believe for the life of me why all players aren't on waivers after draft day. That's a whole different topic, so let's just get to my draft.

At the 5th position in a 10 man draft, I knew I'd have a shot at Shaun Alexander, league MVP two years removed. Although he looked good in his playoff return against Chicago last year, I couldn't justify taking a 30 year old back coming off an injury year (he dropped below 4 yards per carry for the first time in his career last year). The age and injury are huge red flags to me, so I took Joseph Addai, who I think is a next generation back. In splitting time with Dominic Rhodes, Addai had 226 carries for 1,081 yards for an average of 4.8. Just what I want to see out of a young stud: over 4 yards a carry. I think it's safe to assume he takes on an additional 100 carries this season and ends up being a top 5 back, running behind what has been one of the league's most solid offensive lines for years. And we also know you can't put eight in the box against Peyton Manning, or he'll destroy you.

As the snake came back to me, I knew I was going running back. I am very 'old school' in my philosophy that RBs win fantasy championship, so I went with another back who I believe is on the rise, Edgerrin James. While James has been around for years, I say he's on the rise because of the change in offensive philosophy in Arizona. Ken Wisenhunt, former offensive coordinator for the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Russ Grimm, his offensive line coach there, take over and will implement their run system that made the Steelers dominate for the better part of the last decade. Although James also fell under 4 yards a carry, I think he'll rebound well under a new system. The Cardinals also used their 5th pick on Levi Jones, a beast of a tackle, to help solidify their line.

After three top receivers went in the 3rd, I was left to choose between the scraps of the top tier receivers, or stick with RBs. Again, I elected for RBs, as we start a 'flex' in our league. I always want to start three backs, so I went with Ronnie Brown, another young player who I believe is on the rise. Miami's quarterback situation was awful last year, and everyone was coming right for him, yet he still averaged four a carry and another 8.4 a catch. This year, Cam Cameron brings his offensive mindset to South Beach, and it will benefit no one more than Brown. LaDainian Tomlinson has excelled in his system, and I think Ronnie will as well. Plus, the addition of Trent Green should keep defenses honest and out of the box.

Because I went with three running backs to start, I knew my no.1 wideout would be lacking. I lucked out, however, selecting Roy "The Toy" Williams in the 4th. The Toy has caught at least 7 TD's in each of his first three seasons with no other receiver to relieve tension from him. Enter Calvin Johnson. This rookie sensation should attract a lot of attention, leaving The Toy to be even more effective. I expect Roy to approach 90 catches and eclipse 10 TD's for the first time this year, so I'm more than happy to have him at my no.1.

In the 5th round, I wanted to keep building the starting lineup, and all the top tier QB's were gone, so I went with Randy Moss. This is a bit of a flier, but so was Corey Dillon a few years back, who arrived in New England as a talented, but disruptive, player, and put up 1,600 yards and 14 TD's. I know the Patriots spread the ball around, and there are no 'stars', but again, I point to Dillon, whose similarities with Moss are striking. I really think Moss brings it all back together and tries to win his ring this year. For more on this, read my earlier post.

McNasty in the 6th! I'm thrilled with this. I needed a QB, and I got a stunner at the 56th overall pick. Yeah he's coming off (another) injury year, but he was sick last year, and Carson was able to come back after a far worse knee injury. I think the Eagles learned what an asset Westbrook was last year, and McNabb won't be asked to do quite as much this year. I expect 25 TDs and 3,500 yards, at least.

Not feeling the need to jump too early on the Ravens DST, and never wanting a TE this early, I got what I truly believe is the sleeper of the draft in Julius Jones. I've posted about him before and declared him my breakout candidate, so I'm glad he dropped this far. I think he can be a top ten back, which would make his 'value' in the 7th round immense. While Marion Barber stole carries and TD's last year, I just don't see it playing out the same this year. From everything I've read, Barber was a Parcells' favorite, and there's no reason to believe Wade Phillips will show the same favoritism. Phillips is used to seeing a back who can catch and hit the home run, and Jones will provide that this year. And if he doesn't pan out, he's on my bench anyway.

Braylon Edwards in the 8th is a major 'wait and see' pick. He's a 3rd year WR will all the tools for a breakout, expect having a QB to get him the ball. After seeing Brady Quinn take over, however, in last week's preseason game, I'm more excited about him. He was a stud in college, and really just needs the to get the ball thrown his way to make things happen. Hopefully, they happen for me in Williams' bye week.

Since he just kept slipping and slipping, and considering McNabb's recent injuries, I snagged Matt Hasselbeck in the 9th. Matt Hasselbeck is a legitimate starter in any league, any format, so to get him to back up McNabb is a treat.

The final five rounds are nothing to speak of, so I'll sum them up briefly: 10. DeShaun Foster (I know DeAngelo is supposed to take over, but as of now, I just got a starting running back in the 10th round, and that, ladies and gentlemen, I'll take anyday), 11. D.J. Hackett (emerged late last year in Darrell Jackson's absence, and I could get him and Hasselbeck on a double-whammy if I see fit), 12. Greg Jennings (another receiver flier, no biggie, could be starting him by week 4 or dropping him), 13. Heath Miller (my starting tight end with a QB I really think will have a great year), 14. Shayne Graham (kicking off turf and on a prolific offense), 15. Carolina DST (eh, I would have liked better, but I wasn't willing to take anyone earlier, so I'll settle for John Fox's tough mentality, Julius Peppers' freakishness, Dan Morgan's return, and I'd be tickled if Steve Smith took a return back).

All in all, I love the team, drafting from the 5 spot. I've got 5 starting running backs on the roster, all of which could be fantasy starters as well. Roy and Randy make for a solid receiving core, and Donovan and Matt make my QB duo as good as it gets in this league. It'll be interesting to see how things come together, but I expect to take the money this year.

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